Macro dynamic comments
China: the supply side reform continues, and the market pays attention to the demand side. 1) Monetary policy: the central bank turns to net investment weekly. 2) Fiscal policy: under the new downward pressure on the economy, the national Standing Committee proposes to give better play to the driving role of special debt funds. 3) Credit policy: the main tone of regulation on real estate remains unchanged, but the intensity of early-stage policy has eased; The State Council has issued a circular to strengthen credit support and direct financing support for small and medium-sized enterprises. 4) Sino US Relations: ping pong diplomacy and US sanctions against China put pressure on the process of Sino US repair. 5) Supply side: the strict supervision of the Internet (network anchor, APP renewal) and the financial field ( China Everbright Bank Company Limited Co.Ltd(601818) , independent director system) is not over; at the same time, Shanghai data exchange was established and Shanghai data regulations were passed.
Overseas: the Federal Reserve raised its interest rate expectations. 1) Monetary policy: after Powell was nominated by Biden, the minutes of the Federal Reserve released the expectation of accelerating the exit from monetary policy easing again, and the global liquidity pressure increased. The Central Bank of Korea and the Central Bank of New Zealand raised interest rates again this year, while Turkey is experiencing currency shock, focusing on the risks of Egypt, Romania and Sri Lanka. 2) Inflation: core PCE inflation in October increased by 4.1% year-on-year; The selling of crude oil strategic reserves in major countries is expected to be low. 3) Economy: US durable goods orders fell in October and consumer confidence fell in November, but weekly jobless claims fell to a new low. 4) Epidemic situation: B.1. Found in South Africa The epidemic situation of covid-19 strain, a new variant of 1.529, is still not calm in winter.
