Omicron affects the pace of global economic recovery. On November 25, 2021, the National Institute of infectious diseases of South Africa warned of the discovery of B.1 The new variant covid-19 strain of 1.529 is expected to have stronger transmission than Delta. It took less than a day from the publication of the new variation to the screen brushing of the world's media, and then to the who's judgment that it was "worrying", To Omicron (O) It took less than a day to name the mutant. This is the fastest response from who to all mutant strains. At present, it has been at the same level as delta sweeping the world. In addition, nature published an article on November 25, saying that the variant contains a large number of mutations in the antibody recognition spike protein region, which may weaken the effectiveness of the vaccine. Moore's team said that South Africa has reported that, Breakthrough infections occurred among people vaccinated with Johnson & Johnson, Pfizer biontech and Oxford AstraZeneca. At present, the covid-19 epidemic in Europe is in a new round of climbing period. The birth of Omicron undoubtedly "worsens" the increasingly severe epidemic in Europe. Many European countries have clearly postponed the covid-19 epidemic release plan. The recovery of the global economy from the epidemic is expected to be affected.
Overseas inflation has not yet shown signs of decline, and the pace of the Federal Reserve may be repeated. Although taper is landing at the original pace, there is no sign of decline in U.S. inflation for the time being. After repeatedly shouting that OPEC + production was fruitless, the United States announced the joint release of oil reserves in order to cool the high oil price. At present, the total released oil reserves is 64.2 million barrels, equivalent to more than half of the global daily consumption, which is undoubtedly "a drop in the bucket". Omicron appeared, global crude oil prices plummeted, and OPEC + also had reasons to suspend production. Multiple factors, combined with soaring U.S. House prices and strong Thanksgiving consumption, have kept U.S. inflation high. The emergence of Omicron may affect the current fed taper rhythm. The central banks of South Korea and New Zealand still raise interest rates again to curb inflation.
The pressure on China's steady growth has increased and macro cross cyclical adjustment has been strengthened. In October, the profits of industrial enterprises continued to rise, but the profit differentiation between upstream and downstream industries has not been significantly improved. The costs of some downstream industries are under pressure, and the downward pressure on the operation of industrial enterprises still exists. China will strengthen the cross cyclical adjustment of macro policies, deeply implement the relevant policies of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, and promote high-quality economic development. With the emergence of Omicron, China's epidemic prevention policy will become stricter, increase the fiscal underpinning effect, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity of monetary policy, and more effectively ensure employment and people's livelihood.
Investment advice
The virus mutates, the risk appetite decreases, and short-term investors seek safe haven assets. although
The lethality and sustainability of Omicron have yet to be assessed, but according to the statement of who, it triggered a shock in the global capital market, with the largest decline in US stocks since 2021. While continuing to pay attention to the progress of Omicron, investors mainly seek safe haven assets in the short term, including bonds, gold, etc; In addition to allocating risk averse assets, we can also pay attention to the extreme reaction caused by panic, the long-term allocation opportunities of high-quality equity assets brought by the wrong killing of large market blue chips, the subscription opportunities of new shares of Beijing stock exchange and the opportunities brought by the listing of the second batch of REITs.
Risk statement
Supervision continued to increase, the economy rebounded beyond expectations, inflation rose sharply, uncertainty in overseas markets increased, the frequency of default events increased, and the epidemic situation was uncertain
