Special report on macro economy: PMI of manufacturing industry slightly exceeds the boom and bust line, and the growth of service industry is still slow

On November 30, the National Bureau of statistics released the purchasing manager index of China’s manufacturing industry in November (PMI) was 50.1%, slightly exceeding the boom and bust line. The production index was 52.0% and the new order index was 49.4%, indicating that the manufacturing production accelerated in November, but the demand growth was average. The new export order index was 48.5%, up 1.9 percentage points from the previous month. Combined with the year-on-year increase of 27.6% in South Korea’s exports in the first 20 November, the emergence of a new mutant virus once again slowed down the recovery of overseas supply chain and China’s export growth Will remain resilient. The purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 52.9% and 48.9% respectively, which fell sharply compared with the previous month. The effect of measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices represented by thermal coal was obvious. The decline of PPI in the last two months of the year compared with October was basically confirmed. The expected index of production and operation activities was 53.8%, a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the expansion expectation of manufacturing enterprises is more stable. In terms of enterprise scale, the PMI of large enterprises is 50.2%, that of medium-sized enterprises is 51.2%, and that of small enterprises is 48.5%. The overall operation of large enterprises is relatively stable, the expansion of medium-sized manufacturing enterprises is relatively good, and small enterprises are still weak.

In November, the business activity index of the construction industry was 59.1%, an increase of 2.2 percentage points over the previous month. The new order index of the construction industry was 54.2%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, indicating that the number of new engineering contracts signed by construction enterprises increased over the previous month. The accelerated expansion of the construction industry in November may be related to the rebound in infrastructure investment.

In November, the business activity index of the service industry was 51.1%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. The expected index of service business activities was 58.2%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month. New mutated viruses appear abroad, and epidemic prevention work in China is also dynamically adjusted. From the current situation, the growth of consumption and service industry in December is still not optimistic.

 

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