Key investment points:
The report comments on the PMI data of China's manufacturing industry published every month.
In November, the manufacturing industry returned to the expansion range
In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, up 0.9 percentage points. With the continuous and in-depth implementation of the supply guarantee policy, the bottleneck of supply constraints has been greatly alleviated; At the same time, the upstream price fell, and the inhibition on the downstream industry weakened, resulting in a sharp recovery at the production end.
Among the five classification indexes, the production index is higher than the critical point, and the delivery time of new orders, employees, suppliers and raw material inventory index are lower than the critical point. 50.2% of large enterprises, 51.2% of medium-sized enterprises and 48.5% of small enterprises. Medium sized enterprises have improved significantly, and small enterprises have rebounded, but they are still below the critical point.
Domestic and foreign demand has picked up
In November, the new order index was 49.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. The market demand of manufacturing industry has improved, but it is still in the contraction range.
External demand: the new export order index was 48.5%, rising sharply by 1.9 percentage points. The manufacturing industry of some overseas economies repaired and accelerated in November. At the same time, overseas is in the Christmas stock season, driving the recovery of overseas orders. Domestic demand: the import index was 48.1%, continuing to rise by 0.6 percentage points. The on hand order index was 45.7%, up 0.7 percentage points; The purchase volume was 50.2%, up 1.3 percentage points to above the critical point.
Production improved significantly and inventory rebounded
In November, the production index was 52.0%, rising sharply by 3.6 percentage points. With the in-depth implementation of the coal supply guarantee policy and the marginal decline of upstream prices, the production end of the manufacturing industry has been significantly improved.
Raw material inventory was 47.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month; Finished goods inventory was 47.9%, up 1.6 percentage points. The production side of the manufacturing industry was repaired to a large extent, while the demand side recovered relatively slowly, resulting in the recovery of the inventory index.
Manufacturing prices fell significantly
In November, the purchase price index of raw materials was 52.9%, down 19.2 percentage points. The ex factory price index was 48.9%, down 12.2 percentage points, falling below the critical point for the first time since June last year. The upstream and downstream prices of the manufacturing industry decreased month on month. Prices of industrial products generally fell in November. Based on the high-frequency data of PMI price breakdown and industrial product price, it is expected that the PPI in November may fall to around 12.8% year-on-year.
Risk statement
The economy fluctuated more than expected.
