Manufacturing PMI rebounded in November compared with October, but it was significantly weaker than the historical level in the same period; PMI in non manufacturing industry is still dragged down by local sporadic epidemic; The margin of the financing policy of the real estate industry has tightened, but the PMI index is still downward in November. We are concerned about the suspension and resumption of work of the industry before and after the Spring Festival and the impact on the supply and demand of upstream cyclical products.
In November, the manufacturing PMI index was 50.1, including new order index 49.4, production index 52 and raw material inventory index 47.7. Affected by the policies of strengthening energy supply guarantee and stabilizing market prices, the manufacturing PMI index rebounded month on month in November, and the range significantly exceeded the change range in the same period in history. However, from the perspective of index performance, it is still weak compared with the same period in history.
In November, production was strong and orders were weak. The performance of the production side is relatively strong, in which the production index rebounded by 3.6 percentage points month on month (MOM) to 52, the largest increase among all sub indexes, the production and operation activities are expected to remain at a high level, and the raw material inventory and employee index have increased month on month (MOM). However, in the order sector, although the index of new orders, new export orders and orders on hand also increased to varying degrees compared with October, the index is below the boom and bust line, and the order performance is relatively weak compared with the strong recovery of production. In addition, before the Spring Festival holiday in November, the inventory of finished products increased by 1.6 percentage points month on month compared with October, which was significantly higher than the historical average, but still below the boom and bust line. In the future, we should pay attention to three aspects: first, the price of raw materials is high. In the manufacturing PMI index in November, the purchase price index decreased by 19.2 percentage points compared with October, but it is still above the boom and bust line, indicating that the cost pressure of the manufacturing industry is still at a high level; second, the new order index is at a low level, indicating that the demand is still weak; third, the production rebound is strong, However, if the resumption of work after the Spring Festival holiday is less than expected, it may become a pattern of weak supply and demand.
The improvement of the operating difficulties of small enterprises is limited. The expected index of small enterprises rebounded above the boom and bust line in November, but the import index and raw material inventory index continued to decline compared with October. Even if the production index increased by 3 percentage points compared with October, it was only 48.8. It is necessary to pay attention to the changes of the sustainable operation of small enterprises before and after the Spring Festival.
In November, the PMI index of non manufacturing industry was 52.3. The epidemic spread in many places continued to have a negative impact on non manufacturing industry. Other issues that need continuous attention include the possible cost impact on non manufacturing industry after the floating proportion of electricity price increase. The PMI index of the construction industry was 59.1, the input price fell sharply by 25.8 percentage points month on month (MOM) to 44.9, and the sales price fell by 4.6 percentage points month on month (MOM). The profit space of the construction industry improved month on month (MOM), which contributed to the better implementation of infrastructure investment and the formation of physical workload. The PMI index of the service industry is 51.1, focusing on the consumption before the Spring Festival and the potential impact of Omicron on the population flow during the Spring Festival.
Five of the 15 major manufacturing industries are above the boom and bust line, and four of the 11 non manufacturing industries are above the boom and bust line. The PMI of manufacturing industry in November was higher than that in October. Affected by strengthening energy supply guarantee, stabilizing market prices and rectifying the deviation of production and power restriction policies, the downstream industries of manufacturing industry performed relatively well. Among the subdivided industries, the industries that rose in October and above the boom and bust line include automobile, computer communication, special equipment and general equipment industries, and the industries that fell in October and below the boom and bust line include steel, petroleum, chemical fiber, textile and garment, chemical raw materials and electrical machinery. Four of the 11 non manufacturing industries are above the boom and bust line, including logistics and rental services, which are higher than that in October and above the boom and bust line. Affected by the epidemic situation in many places, the PMI index of accommodation and catering industry fell sharply again. In November, the PMI index of real estate industry was 43.8, which is still below the boom and bust line and 1.5 percentage points lower than that in October, Although the financing policies including residential mortgage loans have been relaxed, the real estate industry as a whole is still in adjustment.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The impact of the global covid-19 epidemic has expanded.
