What are the economic targets for 2022?
5% is a possible value. There are three reasons: considering the 14th five year plan and the long-term goal of 2035, it can not be lower than 4.7%; Considering that the potential growth rate is still around 5%; Considering financial risk prevention, the economy still needs to stabilize at 4.8%, so the target growth rate is 5%.
The target is 5%, but from the linear extrapolation of the current overall macro picture, we estimate that the real GDP growth rate of next year is about 4.8%. The reason is still the downward pressure on exports and real estate. Consumption is flat and infrastructure is the most certain, but it is difficult to support alone.
The economic trend of the whole year next year presents an “m” shape year-on-year, that is, it rose in the first quarter, leveled or fell in the second quarter, rose in the third quarter and fell again in the fourth quarter. According to the quarter on quarter adjustment, it shows a “W” shape, which is 1%, 1.2%, 1% and 1.2% respectively in the four quarters.
In 2022, the economy is still weak, and the rhythm shows complex changes on the whole, because while the policy increases the impact on the economy, many influencing factors beyond the economy are embedded in the whole year.
For the bond market, such an economic picture can maintain a neutral and optimistic tone, but there are still problems with low coupon rates and a slightly complex rhythm.
Risk tip: policy uncertainty, overseas epidemic development exceeding expectations, and changes in the external environment.
