abstract
In November, the manufacturing PMI was 50.1%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points over the previous month, ending the contraction for two consecutive months and returning to the expansion range. The repair of PMI is mainly due to the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price, which promotes the decline of raw material prices, the improvement of power supply capacity, and the significant acceleration of manufacturing production activities.
In terms of manufacturing demand, the new order index in November was 49.4%, up 0.6 percentage points from the previous month, but still below the boom and bust line. On the one hand, consumption and investment drive the marginal improvement of demand side; On the other hand, the multi-point spread of the epidemic restricts the recovery of demand. In terms of external demand, new export orders in October were 48.5%, an increase of 1.9 percentage points over the previous month, and external demand has obviously warmed up. The global economy is gradually recovering, the growth momentum of major export destination countries is good, and the Christmas consumption season is coming, which jointly drives the growth of foreign demand.
In terms of manufacturing supply, the production index in November was 52.0%, an increase of 3.6 percentage points over the previous month, returning to the expansion range. The rapid recovery of the production side is mainly due to the obvious effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price. The high price of raw materials and power tension that continue to restrict the production of the manufacturing industry have been relieved this month, and the production capacity of the manufacturing industry has been released faster.
In terms of enterprise scale, in November, large enterprises continued to expand, and small and medium-sized enterprises benefited from the "combined fist" of the "1 + 2" long-term and short-term policy, and the prosperity improved.
In November, the PMI ex factory price index and the purchase price index of main raw materials fell sharply compared with the previous month, mainly because the effect of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing price appeared, the coal output rebounded, and the coal futures and spot prices fell sharply, driving the general decline of raw material prices. PPI and ppirm are also expected to converge significantly in November.
Looking ahead, the recovery on the demand side is less than that on the production side, And covid-19 virus Omicron The Omicron variant brings downside risks to the global economy or will further impact demand. Internationally, in response to the new strain of covid-19 virus, the United States promised not to re implement the blockade measures, and the Federal Reserve considered accelerating the pace of debt purchase in order to curb high inflation. In terms of China's fiscal policy, fiscal policy is significantly backward, and there is still more room for fiscal expenditure at the end of the year In terms of China's monetary policy, on the basis of adhering to the prudent monetary policy, which should be flexible, accurate, reasonable and appropriate, we emphasize the requirement of "focusing on ourselves". Monetary policy remains stable on the whole, but for some structural problems, the central bank's structural policy and counter cyclical regulation policy may continue to increase.
