Although the covid-19 epidemic continues, the global economy has rebounded significantly since the beginning of 2021, mainly due to strong macro policy support, orderly vaccination and gradual economic restart, especially the service industry
Since the beginning of 2021, the global inflation rate has increased significantly due to the recovery of oil and other commodity prices, the interruption of supply chains in some industries and the rise of transportation costs. Although the overall global wage pressure remains moderate, there are signs that wage growth in the United States may accelerate due to the shortage of labor market
Looking forward to 2022, we expect that the covid-19 epidemic will gradually subside with the expansion of vaccine coverage and the improvement of treatment methods. However, as the rate of vaccination varies from country to country, the global recovery may be uneven. With the gradual withdrawal of stimulus policies and the slow recovery of global supply chains, we expect global economic growth to slow down under the high base effect in 2022
We expect the economies of the United States, China, the euro zone, Japan and the United Kingdom to grow by 6.0%, 8.5%, 5.2%, 3.0% and 7.0% respectively in 2021 and 4.0%, 5.5%, 4.0%, 2.5% and 5.0% respectively in 2022. In comparison, the economies of the above countries will grow by - 3.4%, 2.3%, - 6.3%, - 4.6% and - 9.8% respectively in 2020
