The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the United States and Europe imposed sanctions; Document No. 1 issued. The order of asset allocation of major categories: bulk bonds stocks currencies.
Macro highlights
Economic data: none.
Important news: in 2022, No. 1 central document entitled "the CPC Central Committee and the State Council on the key to the work of promoting the Rural Revitalization in 2022". The State Council printed and distributed the national plan for the development of the cause of aging and the elderly care service system during the 14th Five Year Plan period; The Ministry of housing and urban rural development has set the key work of the property market in 2022 and will continue to adhere to the positioning of "no speculation in housing"; The State Council approved the implementation plan of the 14th five year plan for the development of urban agglomerations in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River; The conflict between Russia and Ukraine escalated, and the United States and Europe imposed sanctions.
Asset performance review
RMB assets fell more or rose less. This week, the CSI 300 index fell 1.67%, and the CSI 300 stock index futures fell 1.55%; Coking coal futures rose 1.2% this week, while the main contract of coking iron ore rose 1.6%; The expected yield of financial management of joint-stock banks was flat at 1.92%, and the 7-day annualized yield of yu'e Bao fell 2bp to 1.98%; The yield of ten-year Treasury bonds fell 2bp to 2.78%, and the active ten-year Treasury bond futures fell 0.07% this week.
Asset allocation suggestions
Asset allocation: bulk bonds stocks currencies. China's economic target in the first quarter is steady growth, but population flow and household consumption are relatively weak during the Spring Festival. Therefore, an important driving force for steady growth is the resumption of investment and production. The market will pay close attention to the PMI data of February to be released. It should be noted that there are both seasonal factors and holiday factors in the February PMI data, as well as the disturbance of the rebound of the epidemic in many places in China. If the manufacturing PMI index in February is significantly lower than the boom and bust line, the probability of loose monetary policy in March will increase significantly. The liquidity brought by policy relaxation will significantly boost government bonds, corporate bonds and residents' medium and long-term loans, and help boost the growth of infrastructure investment and real estate investment. In terms of asset allocation of major categories, the global economic recovery is expected to continue to support commodity prices. The impact of China's loose monetary policy expectations and higher financial data on bond yields is generally positive. A shares are affected by the international situation and performance expectations in the first quarter.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
