Asset overview
The A-share market stabilized and warmed up, the overseas equity market generally fell, the bond market corrected, and the commodity market was strong. In the equity market, the A-share market recovered, with CSI 300 up 0.21%, CSI 500 up 3.63%, CSI 1000 up 5.58% and gem down 1.83%; Overseas equity markets generally fell, with the S & P 500 up 1.07% and Russian stocks down 33.41%. The bond market pulled back, with China Securities all bonds down 0.3% and China Securities treasury bonds down 0.37%. The commodity market showed strong performance, with crude oil up 5.33% and aluminum up 10.46% this month. From the perspective of correlation, the seesaw effect of stocks and bonds is still strong, and the positive correlation between commodities and equity is at a historical high.
Latest views
In terms of macro influencing factors, the main positive contribution this month comes from price and economic growth factors; The main negative contributions of this month are monetary interest rate and international financial factors.
The net inflow of funds going northward decreased month on month, and the activity of financing purchase increased. The net inflow of funds going north this month was 1.933 billion yuan, and the net inflow last month was 16.775 billion yuan. As of February 24, the balance of margin trading was 1.72 trillion yuan, an increase of 29.122 billion yuan over the end of last month; Financing purchases accounted for 5.88% of the financing balance, which was in the fifth percentile of the previous three months.
By industry, the net inflow of funds from banks, nonferrous metals, transportation and power utilities ranks first; The net outflow scale of basic chemical industry, computer and medicine ranks first, among which the basic chemical industry has changed from positive to negative compared with the previous month. According to the institutional research data, the industries with high attention in recent four weeks are medicine, machinery, basic chemical industry, electronics, computer and other industries.
In the stock index futures market, the trading volume of the three major stock index futures decreased this month, the positions decreased and the basis decreased.
The long-term interest rate in the bond market rose and the seven-day repo rate fell. The long-term interest rate rose 57.02 BP to 3.27% this month; The short-term interest rate rose 64.74bp to 2.60%. The easing of monetary policy liquidity has entered the new normal after the epidemic. The seven-day repo rate fell 23.75bp to 2.30% this month, and the rolling 20 day average is at the low level since this year. The interest margin of treasury bonds decreased by 7.72bp, the term interest margin of CDB bonds increased by 9.16bp, and the credit interest margin of 3M medium and short-term notes – 3M CDB bonds increased by 23.40bp this month.
The trend of commodity market is strong. Nanhua commodity index rose 2.39% this month, including industrial products index rose 0.73%, agricultural products index rose 5.98%, SHFE rebar fell 4.39%, LME copper rose 3.83% and LME aluminum rose 10.46%. COMEX gold rose 5.46% this month, with a volatile rise in the past month. The performance of Nanhua gold index is more differentiated than Comex gold in recent six months, and China National Gold Group Gold Jewellery Co.Ltd(600916) performance is poor. NYMEX crude oil rose 5.33% this month.
Risk tips
The epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, and the quantitative model failed due to drastic changes in the market.
