Core view
In November, the economic data began to reflect the idea of “building first and then breaking”. The process of rapidly eliminating backward production capacity through dual control of energy consumption has been corrected, and black, nonferrous metals, building materials, chemical and other industries began to resume production. From the perspective of “establishment”, the manufacturing investment intensity related to “new energy +” will be further improved, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment is expected to reach 17.6% in November. We believe that with the gradual formation of the “stand before break” pattern, the “new energy +” related investment is expected to continue to drive China’s economic growth.
The negative factors gradually disappeared and the industry gradually repaired
In November, industrial production improved positively. In addition to the continuous restriction of steel production, other negative factors restricting industrial production improved positively. Considering the high base factor of last year, we expect the year-on-year growth rate of the added value of industries above Designated Size in November to be 4.0%, compared with the compound growth rate of recent two years in 2019 to be 5.5%. From the high-frequency production data, the industrial production boom in November picked up compared with the previous month. In terms of demand, the support of foreign demand for industrial production boom in November may be stronger than that of domestic demand.
It is expected that the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment in November will rebound to 7.0%
It is estimated that from January to November, the fixed asset investment increased by 7.0% year-on-year, 0.9 percentage points higher than the previous value, of which the growth rate of real estate and infrastructure fell further, and the growth rate of manufacturing investment maintained growth. From the year-on-year growth rate in November, the growth rates of investment in real estate, infrastructure and manufacturing were – 5.3%, – 1.8% and 17.6% respectively.
The disturbance of the epidemic continues and the recovery of consumption is blocked
It is expected that the total retail sales of social consumer goods in November will increase by 3.9% year-on-year, with a compound growth rate of 4.5% from 2019 to 2021 and a previous value of 4.6%, slightly lower than that of the previous month. In November, the epidemic continued to affect the recovery of consumption, but the recovery of CPI formed a certain support for the zero nominal value of social security. The performance of double 11 was poor, and the growth rate of total retail sales of the whole network was the lowest in 12 years.
Economic growth fell and unemployment rose slightly
It is expected that the national urban survey unemployment rate in November will be 5.0%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points over October and a decrease of 0.1 percentage points over the same period in 2019. The downward pressure of the economy may gradually transmit to the job market.
CPI rose, PPI fell, and ppi-cpi scissors narrowed
It is expected that CPI will continue to rise slightly in November, with a month on month increase of + 0.5% and a year-on-year increase of + 2.5%. Driven by demand, pig prices rose sharply, which led to a significant recovery of CPI food items, while the recurrence of the epidemic delayed the repair of core CPI. It is expected that the PPI in November will be – 0.5% month on month and + 12.4% year-on-year, and the ppi-cpi scissors difference will be significantly narrowed.
Exports remain resilient in the short term, and domestic demand is under pressure, dragging down imports
Price factors, repeated overseas epidemics and other factors drive the export to be resilient in the short term. It is expected that the export in November will be priced in RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 12.7% and a trade surplus of US $78 billion. The gradual decline of domestic demand determines the pressure on imports. It is expected that the growth rate of imports denominated in RMB in November will be 18.2%.
It is estimated that in November, credit will increase by 1.6 trillion and social finance will increase by 2.77 trillion, with growth rates of 11.9% and 10.2% respectively
It is estimated that the new amount of RMB credit in November is 1.6 trillion, an increase of 170 billion yuan over the same period last year, and the corresponding growth rate is the same as the previous value of 11.9%. The core lies in the year-on-year increase of on balance sheet bills and non bank loans, and the stabilization of medium and long-term loans for enterprises and residents. It is estimated that the new increment of social finance in November is 2.77 trillion, an increase of about 630 billion yuan over the same period last year, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points over the previous value to 10.2%. The growth rate of social finance has entered the upward channel, but the speed is relatively slow. The year-on-year increase in November is mainly from government bonds, corporate bonds and credit. It is expected that the large amount of credit in November will help stabilize the M2 growth rate, which is expected to be 8.7% before the M2 growth rate is flat. It is expected that the growth rate of M1 in November will continue to fall to 2% compared with the previous value of 2.8%. The higher base last year, the gradual decline of economic fundamentals and the downturn of real estate sales will continue to drag down M1 data.
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