The rebound persistence of manufacturing PMI is still insufficient. In November, China Mining PMI continued to rebound, production rose rapidly, and finished product inventory rose. The rise of PMI this month is mainly to make up for the decline in production in October. The overall PMI is still weak, and the economic downturn has not reversed. The recovery of China’s production is mainly a compensatory recovery of production under the weakening of supply constraints. This recovery is still unstable, and the demand for Christmas and Spring Festival also has holiday characteristics. The PMI rebound in November was weak and still at a low level. At the same time, the high inventory of finished products means that future production is facing the constraint of de inventory.
Production rebounded compensably, inventory rose rapidly, and production rose sharply in November. This upward trend is a rebound under supply constraints. Although the rebound degree is large, other indicators do not cooperate accordingly, and production may be stable at a low level next month. There are multiple reasons for the rise of finished product inventory. After the supply constraints are slowed down, production recovers rapidly, and there is a slight backlog of inventory under the preparation for the Spring Festival and poor logistics. After the slowdown of supply constraints, the inventory of raw materials also increased. After the decline of raw material prices, enterprises increased the purchase of related products.
The purchase price index fell rapidly. Due to policy adjustment and supply constraints, the raw material industry was relaxed, resulting in a sharp decline in the price of raw materials. The price of thermal coal has fallen 57% from the high point. The decline of purchase prices is mainly concentrated in the field of raw materials, and metal products, non-metallic mineral products, ferrous metals, non-ferrous metals, textiles and clothing decline rapidly. The decline rate of crude oil related products is still slow. The downstream costs of electrical machinery, computers, general equipment, medicine and automobiles are still high.
Steady growth is gradually developing, and exports are still supported. The industry with the best performance in November is the automobile manufacturing industry, which has the highest production prosperity, followed by the computer communication and other electronic equipment industries. The PMI index of special equipment exceeded that of general equipment, indicating that steady growth measures have begun, and the upward investment in infrastructure has driven the production of special equipment. Overseas prosperity is still high, mainly affected by overseas Christmas and epidemic situation. China’s export industry has also increased, and the export of agricultural and sideline products has reached a new high.
The economic cycle is still falling, and the overall PMI indicators have recovered slightly, but it is warm but not warm, and may still decline in December. All indicators of PMI are lower than the average value of previous years, the rebound is limited and the time is short, and the economy is in the process of continuous structural transformation and clearing. The economic cycle is still in a downward trend: (1) new overseas orders are still low, and the pull of exports on China’s production slows down after Christmas. (2) China’s raw material industry as a whole falls, while the downstream demand is still weak, and the midstream and downstream demand will gradually decline. The inventory of finished products continues to rise, and it is necessary to enter the de inventory cycle in the future. (3) The real estate industry chain is in a downward trend.
