Combined with the latest trading sentiment tracking, the market momentum has been repaired, but the internal and external funds are still weakening. On the one hand, the market momentum has been repaired, and indicators such as turnover rate, price limit ratio and MACD strong stocks continue to be repaired; On the other hand, the internal and external financial sentiment has weakened simultaneously, and the new fund is still weakening, significantly lower than that in the same period of previous years. The financing leverage sentiment continues to bottom, and the foreign trading market has also turned into outflow due to overseas impact. In terms of transaction structure, the transaction concentration fell, while the transaction differentiation level continued to rise. The transaction proportion of medical R & D outsourcing, securities and marketing agents mostly fell, and the transaction proportion of IT services, aviation equipment and traditional Chinese medicine rebounded.
1. Transaction structure tracking
1) level of differentiation between rise and fall: the center of rise and fall has dropped in the past Sunday, and the differentiation between February and August has increased. Among them, the median daily rise and fall of individual stocks in recent 5 days, 20 days and 60 days were 0.10%, - 0.12% and - 0.04% respectively; The Income Differentiation of 28 fell to 19.69%, and the degree of transaction differentiation of 28 rebounded to 25.
2) transaction concentration: the transaction concentration of individual stocks has declined. The transaction proportion of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks changed by - 1.12%, - 1.81% and - 1.79% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 63.9%, 65.2% and 70.1% respectively. The transaction concentration of the industry as a whole has declined. Among them, the proportion of transactions in the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industries changed by 0.11%, - 0.03% and - 0.06% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 5.5%, 23.3% and 25.7% respectively.
3) trading differentiation level: the trading differentiation level of individual stocks has rebounded. The trading differentiation coefficients of the top 1%, top 5% and top 10% stocks have changed by - 1.82%, 0.64% and 0.8% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles have reached 70.2%, 72.3% and 69.3% respectively. The level of industry transaction differentiation has rebounded. The top 1%, top 5% and top 10% industry transaction differentiation coefficients changed by - 0.94%, 2.92% and 2.52% month on month respectively, and their historical quantiles reached 61.3%, 77.3% and 78.9% respectively.
2. Market sentiment tracking
1) the 10 day moving average of the price limit ratio of all a rose to 5.37, and the turnover rate of all a rose to 6.69%. 2) The VIX Index fell 0.16 month on month to 27.59. 3) The number of new stocks in the whole a fell month on month, and the number of new low stocks fell month on month: the 10 day moving average of the number of new high stocks in the 60th fell to 131, and the 10 day moving average of the number of new low stocks in the 60th fell to 167; The 10 day moving average of the number of record high stocks rose to 7, and the 10 day moving average of the number of record low stocks fell to 15. 4) The number of trend dominated stocks fell. Among them, the number of stocks above the 60 day moving average fell to 32.10% month on month, hitting a record high in recent January, and the number of stocks fell to 42. 5) The proportion of MACD strong stocks in the whole a market rebounded to 16.78%, and the proportion of weak stocks fell to 15.33%. 6) All a leveraged funds sentiment fell back to 8.47%. 7) The net outflow of foreign trading ma30 decreased to -695 million yuan.
3. Micro liquidity tracking
1) monetary tightness: the net monetary investment is 760 billion yuan, the short-term interest rate rises, the Shibor of each period has dropped as a whole, the interest rate of treasury bonds has dropped, the credit interest margin of each period has rebounded, and the RMB has appreciated.
2) capital supply: the newly issued scale of partial equity funds was about 4.363 billion yuan, the share of ETF increased by 3.246 billion month on month, the net outflow of funds going north was 6.413 billion yuan, and the financing balance increased by 9.625 billion yuan month on month.
3) capital demand: there are five new IPOs, the initial financing scale is 3.038 billion yuan, the reduction of industrial capital is about 9.653 billion yuan, and there is no new fixed increase refinancing. In addition, the lifting pressure fell month on month this week, with the lifting scale of about 37.346 billion yuan.
Risk tips: 1. Increased volatility in overseas markets; 2. Macroeconomic fluctuations exceeding expectations; 3. There are some errors in the statistical model.
