Main points:
In the short term, the market will be dominated by shocks. In the near future, liquidity expectations are loose. Under the tone of steady growth, there are structural opportunities.
From the perspective of liquidity indicators, liquidity is relatively loose in the near future. M2 is higher than M1 year on year; Shibor interest rate fluctuates normally; In February, it was announced that the LPR for one-year period was 3.7%, and the LPR for more than five-year period was 4.6%, both unchanged from the previous period; The yield of China national debt showed a downward trend. Recently, the newly established partial stock fund shares remain at a low position; The latest financial balance of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1727.1 billion yuan, which remained low; In terms of social finance, new RMB loans increased significantly in January; In December, the IPO volume of A-Shares increased significantly. The net outflow of funds from the north in the past week was 6.413 billion yuan, and the net inflow of funds from the south in the past week was 4.971 billion yuan.
From the perspective of recent sentiment indicators, we can see the general market sentiment. The number of strong stocks in the upper part of mA20 and multi head arrangement rebounded to the central position, and the number of trading shares and the height of the connecting board were near the average; Recently, affected by the continuous fermentation of Russia Ukraine events, the financial market volatility has intensified, and the overall mood of A-Shares is cautious.
From the perspective of market valuation, the overall valuation of the two cities is still in a reasonable range. The difference between Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index EP and treasury bond yield has fluctuated below the average recently, and the implied yield of stock assets is not high compared with risk-free interest rate. The risk premium of CSI 500 fluctuates above the moving average. Recently, with the market correction, it has a trend of fast approaching the upper edge of the channel. In terms of overall style, small and medium-sized stocks are stronger than the market.
In terms of profitability, the annual reports of listed companies will be gradually disclosed. The growth rate of A-share profit in the third quarter of 21 continued to fall compared with the second quarter. The profitability of the 21-year cycle style is much stronger than that of other styles, which matches the pro cycle market. It fell sharply in the third quarter, and the growth style is the second.
Investment suggestions:
Considering the recent performance, valuation and profitability of the industry, we are optimistic about the main line of stable growth in the near future: new and old infrastructure, digital economy and other sectors meet the general tone of stable growth and promoting consumption, and the participation of relevant sectors is cost-effective; For the main line of profitability, the annual reports of listed companies will be gradually disclosed, and the importance of the company’s fundamentals and profitability will be improved. Companies with better performance than expected can be mined in the cyclical sectors such as energy and chemical industry with better early profitability; Under the expectation of loose monetary credit, banks and other financial sectors will also benefit from abundant liquidity.
Risk tips:
The epidemic situation is repeated, the economic data is less than expected, the friction between China and the United States is intensified, the impact of the instability of the global financial environment, and the financial report data is less than expected.
