Macro categories:
After the first round of negotiations between Ukraine and Russia ended on March 1, no significant progress was made. The two sides agreed to hold the next round of negotiations on the white wave border. During this period, Russia's military action against Ukraine did not stop, and the subsequent Ukrainian Russian war may usher in a more intense stage. For the stock index, the most intense moment of the current event may have passed. For commodities, we still need to see the changes in the fundamentals of supply and demand. The reason is that the probability of subsequent events continuing to intensify is very low. One possibility is that the United States and NATO are directly involved in the war, but the spokesmen of the United States and NATO said they would not send troops to directly intervene in the war; Putin also said in his speech on February 24 that he would not seek to occupy Ukraine with the goal of demilitarization of Ukraine. Another possibility is that Ukraine has quickly restarted its nuclear strike capability, but at present, Ukraine does not have the ability to restart nuclear weapons in the short term. Under the assumption that there will be no full-scale proxy war, it is necessary to wait for both parties to sign an agreement and the dust of the event will be settled. However, it should also be pointed out that the event itself is full of uncertainty, and there may be risks in the follow-up, such as more than expected sanctions on Russian energy exports and even the use of strategic missiles. It is not recommended to prematurely intervene in the bottom and top trading of the event.
We selected six geopolitical events with great influence in history as samples for analysis. The impact of geopolitical conflict on financial assets shows the law of first falling and then rising. In the brewing stage before the event landing (the first month), among the six samples, the US dollar index, Shanghai Composite Index and 10Y US bond interest rate have a high probability of falling, the probability of falling is 83.3%, and the probability of safe haven asset gold is 66.6%. After the official landing of the event, the risk assets rebounded and repaired. In the sample, the probability of 83.3% of the NASDAQ index and 66.6% of the Shanghai Composite Index and the US dollar index rose. The commodity sectors except gold did not show obvious laws before and after the event. We believe that the results will change according to the supply and demand structure of the place where the event occurred.
Generally speaking, the progress of real estate at the micro level is still not ideal. There has been a large amount of special bonds recently, but there has been no improvement at the start end. Our strategy of reducing domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal) in the short term is neutral; As the two sessions window approaches, and Tianliang social finance supports the enterprise's profit expectation, we still maintain the view that the shareholding index is bargain hunting and long Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) the bullish logic based on supply bottleneck and cost transmission is still relatively smooth; At present, the crude oil chain is more dependent on the favorable situation of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, so we need to be vigilant against the adjustment risk of mitigation of subsequent events; In terms of precious metals, as the CPI of the United States in January hit a new high since the 1980s, supported by the logic of overseas stagflation and superimposed the risk of conflict between Russia and Ukraine, precious metals maintained the view of bargain hunting and long.
Strategy (strength ranking): Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) (soybean, soybean meal, etc.), bargain hunting and long of precious metals; Industrial products for external demand (crude oil and its cost related chain commodities, new energy non-ferrous metals), and industrial products for domestic demand (black building materials, traditional non-ferrous aluminum, chemical industry and coal);
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; The deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait; The situation in Ukraine and Russia.
