The difference order pattern is both a challenge and an opportunity. 2022 is the first year for China's economy to normalize after the impact of covid-19 epidemic has subsided, which is of more directional significance for the beginning of the 14th five year plan. Overseas economies are still at a critical stage from the epidemic to recovery. The pace of opening up the economy, economic recovery and policy normalization may be significantly accelerated. This will bring new changes to the spillover effect of overseas on China, which is highlighted by the "poor openness" in epidemic prevention and control, the reverse "poor growth" in economic growth and the "poor tightness" in monetary policy. After taking the lead in controlling the epidemic in 2021, China will take the lead in the global economic recovery; After overseas accelerated repair in 2022, China's determination to adhere to "high-quality development" mainly faces new tests and breeds new opportunities.
Go to China's economy with high-quality development. The downward pressure on China's economy in 2022 mainly comes from: first, the impact of real estate regulation policies extends in 2021, and real estate investment may slide to in-depth adjustment. However, with the support of the three new development drivers of improvement, citizenization and urban agglomeration, the fundamentals of real estate sales have not collapsed, and the development of the real estate industry is increasingly integrated, And more closely embedded in the process of high-quality development, we are not overly pessimistic about real estate investment in 2022. Second, after the pulling effect of overseas exports to China may weaken, China's economy will turn more to internal circulation, but the release of China's consumption potential remains a challenge. Third, driven by green transformation and technological breakthrough, manufacturing investment has become a key incremental source of high-quality development. We can take a high look at manufacturing investment in 2022. However, after the high level of export boom fell and before the green transformation path became clearer, the conditions for its "rapid progress" were not mature enough. In 2022, under the top-level design of cross cycle regulation and the continued release of the bonus of system and mechanism reform, we expect that China's economy can achieve an actual growth rate of about 5.3% in the whole year. The second year of the 14th five year plan will become the "second spring" of China's economic transformation.
Macro policies to promote high-quality development. In 2022, both internal and external pressures on China's economic growth will increase, putting forward higher demands and greater challenges to macro-control policies. It is expected that the fiscal policy and industrial policy adjustment will be the focus in 2022, while there is little room for comprehensive easing with the cooperation of monetary policy. In terms of monetary policy, the structural monetary policy tool led by refinancing will play a prominent role in the delivery of basic currency; The space for stable credit growth depends on the easing of industrial policies such as real estate and high energy consumption, as well as the increment of high-quality development and green transformation of manufacturing industry; The high macro leverage ratio and interest repayment pressure have laid the direction for the downward movement of interest rate level. In terms of fiscal policy, the tone can be slightly more positive than that in 2021. The rhythm of fiscal expenditure needs to reflect the "front-end" characteristics, explore the better combination of new local special bonds with major projects in the 14th five year plan and local affordable housing projects, and give better play to the role of cross cycle regulation.
Embrace high-quality development of the capital market. China, which is moving towards high-quality development, will provide rich investment opportunities in the capital market. The stock market focuses on four main lines: the growth track of continuous high growth driven by monetary easing; With the improvement of gross profit margin, we specialize in new high-tech manufacturing industry; From the perspective of absolute return, the dividend factor of undervalued high dividend; On the front page of the new round of pig cycle, the beta market of pig breeding industry. The bond market can grasp the opportunity of monetary policy loosening in stages. At the same time, in the process of pursuing high-quality development, the improvement of the quality and efficiency of capital use will also drive the medium and long-term interest rate downward. As a stabilizer to adjust the internal and external balance, the RMB exchange rate may change from a sustained strong state to a more prominent two-way fluctuation, so as to release the independent space of China's monetary policy and balance the cost pressure of export enterprises.
Risk tip: covid-19 epidemic worsened, industry regulatory policies superimposed, and the Federal Reserve tightened monetary policy quickly.
