A week’s events
China: annual economic growth may exceed expectations, focusing on digital transformation opportunities in six fields. As of November 29, many places have announced the 14th five year plan for scientific and technological innovation, clarifying the construction priorities in the next five years. Scientific and technological innovation will focus on supporting the development of the real economy, promote the transformation and application of scientific and technological achievements, and cultivate high-tech industrial clusters and enterprises relying on self creation zones and high-tech zones; As of the 30th, more than 20 provinces have successively started the revision of local population and family planning regulations and issued relevant supporting measures to encourage fertility, which is expected to benefit from neonatal related medical services, health care, maternal and infant consumption, neonatal education and entertainment; On the 30th, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the development plan for deep integration of informatization and industrialization in the 14th five year plan, which proposed that informatization and industrialization would achieve integrated development in a wider range, deeper degree and higher level by 2025. It set five main tasks, five key projects and five safeguard measures. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to raw materials, equipment manufacturing, consumer goods, electronic information Digital transformation opportunities in green manufacturing, safety production and other fields; On the 30th, Liu he said at the 9th China EU forum Hamburg summit that the annual economic growth is expected to exceed the expected target, and the continuity, stability and sustainability of macro policies will be maintained next year. The sustained prosperity of China’s economy and the continuous optimization of its business environment can further promote the development of China EU economic and trade relations and further boost the new balance in China’s international economic and trade relations; On December 1, the national Standing Committee strengthened its support for the stable operation of small and medium-sized enterprises at the end of the year, and once again stressed that accelerating the cultivation of vocational skills training and improving the matching between supply and demand in the job market. Under the background of slowing population growth, the rational and full use of human resources will be the continuous focus of the policy.
Overseas: Powell’s turn to Eagle caused concern, and Omicron strain brought variables. On November 29 local time, Kishida announced that foreigners would be banned from entering Japan. Due to the slow economic recovery, Japan has issued corresponding support policies in terms of residents, enterprises and fiscal stimulus, but the future recovery under the influence of the epidemic is confused; On the 30th local time, the initial annual rate of CPI in the euro zone in November recorded 4.9%, a new high in 25 years. Previously, the European Central Bank stated that inflation was only temporary, but the emergence of Omicron made the European central bank face greater challenges in terms of credibility. It is expected that the short-term inflation in the euro zone will remain high; On the 30th local time, Powell and Yellen attended the hearing of the Senate Banking Committee. Powell said that high inflation may not be temporary. It is expected that the FOMC will discuss accelerating the completion of debt purchase reduction in December, but the emergence of Omicron adds another variable to the tightening path of the central bank’s monetary policy; On December 1 local time, the OECD released the latest global economic outlook report, which lowered the global economic growth forecast for 2021 to 5.6%. The OECD chief economist said that the imbalance of development among countries and industries has brought uncertainty to the global economic recovery. In the case of intensified differentiation in the pace of global economic recovery, it is suggested to adopt the strategy of diversified allocation and phased dynamic adjustment in asset allocation.
High frequency data: upstream: crude oil price decreased, iron ore increased and cathode copper decreased; Middle reaches: the price index of means of production and the price of main industrial raw materials decreased on a weekly basis; Downstream: real estate sales rose on a weekly basis, and the trend of automobile retail was flat; Prices: vegetable prices fell slightly on a weekly basis, while pork prices rose slightly on a weekly basis.
Focus next week: China’s November trade data (Monday); eurozone GDP in the third quarter and ZEW Economic Climate Index in December (Tuesday); China’s social finance scale, M1 and M2 in November (Wednesday); China’s November CPI and PPI (Thursday); the November CPI of the United States, Germany and Japan (Friday).
Risk tip: Overseas inflation is high, and China’s demand recovery is less than expected.
