Event:
On March 1, the National Bureau of statistics released the PMI index in February. The manufacturing PMI index recorded 50.2%, up 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.
Comments:
The manufacturing PMI rebounded in a super seasonal manner, the demand improved significantly, the production was not weak, and it fell more seasonally. The manufacturing PMI rebounded in a super seasonal manner, mainly driven by new orders and improved employment. In February, the manufacturing PMI recorded 50.2%, 49.8% higher than the average market expectation, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, while it fell more than the same period in the past; New orders and employees improved, while production, raw material inventory and supplier distribution time decreased. By industry, the prosperity of non-ferrous smelting, chemical fiber, special equipment for communication, medicine and other industries has improved.
New orders and new export orders both rebounded, and some middle and upper reaches industries improved significantly. In February, 50.7% of PMI’s new orders returned to above the critical value for the first time after half a year, up 1.4 percentage points from the previous month; New export orders rose 0.6 percentage points to 49% from the previous month. The improvement of new orders is partly due to the boom recovery of upstream black chain, colored chain, midstream general equipment, special equipment, computer communication, and downstream textile and clothing.
Manufacturing production is not weak, and the decline of the index is more seasonal. In February, the PMI production index was 50.4%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the decline was equivalent to the average value in the same period of comparable years; On the one hand, it is due to the interference of the Spring Festival holiday, on the other hand, it is also related to the production restriction of some upstream industries under the influence of the Winter Olympic Games, and most of the production of middle and upstream industries fell. The inventory of raw materials and finished products fell, while the purchase volume rose by 0.7 percentage points.
The boom of service industry and construction industry both rebounded. When the “three-step” of steady growth was carried out, the “economic bottom” was imminent
The prosperity of different enterprises is divided, and the prosperity of small enterprises is further declining. In February, the PMI of large and medium-sized enterprises rebounded by 0.2 and 0.9 percentage points respectively, while the PMI of small enterprises fell by 0.9 percentage points to 45.1%, again breaking the new low since March 2020. In terms of main sub items, the production and new orders of large and medium-sized enterprises rebounded; The production and new orders of small enterprises continue to fall, but the new export orders and business activities are expected to improve.
The improvement of the service industry is slightly more than seasonal, and the impact of repeated outbreaks may tend to weaken. In February, non manufacturing PMI recorded 51.6%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; Among them, the PMI index of the service industry was 50.5%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, slightly better than the same period of comparable years in recent years. New orders fell, but the activity expectation improved, and the impact of repeated epidemics may tend to weaken. The number of passengers sent during the Spring Festival transportation in 2022 increased by about 20% year-on-year.
New orders and business activities in the construction industry are expected to continue to pick up, pointing to steady growth. In February, the PMI of the construction industry recorded 57.6%, up 2.2 percentage points from the previous month, rising for two consecutive months; Among them, the expected index of new orders and business activities in the construction industry rebounded by 1.8 and 1.6 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month, or related to the increase in construction activities under the overweight of steady growth. When the “three-step” of steady growth was carried out, it has gradually transitioned from the first step, monetary easing and increasing government financing to the second step, accelerating the construction of projects and driving the improvement of physical demand.
Reiterate the view that when the “policy bottom” is consolidated and steady growth is carried out in three steps, the “economic bottom” may appear around the first quarter, and the economy may gradually return to the “new steady state” and the reasonable growth range may be 5% – 5.5% in 2022. For large categories of assets, the negative factors of interest rate bonds will gradually appear at the stage of the transformation from “wide currency” to “wide credit”, but it is not a “big bear market”; Under the background that the “kinetic energy switching” is still accelerating, the stock market is not pessimistic.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and the epidemic situation is repeated.
