In February, the PMI of manufacturing industry rebounded slightly, and the recovery of demand is the main reason for the recovery of the outlook of manufacturing industry. The operating pressure of small enterprises still exists, but the expected index of their operating activities has increased, and the steady growth policy may be transmitted to small enterprises. The PMI of road and railway transportation increased significantly month on month, providing strong certainty for the development of infrastructure.
Manufacturing PMI rebounded slightly. The manufacturing PMI index in February was 50.2, 0.1 percentage point higher than that in January, and remained above the boom and bust line. From the breakdown data, the new order index in February was 50.7, an obvious increase of 1.4 percentage points over January; The production index was 50.4, down 0.5 percentage points from January; The raw material inventory index was 48.1, down 1.0 percentage points from January; The employee index was 49.2, up 0.3 percentage points from January. Demand repair and order upward are important drivers of the slight recovery of PMI data in February; In February, the epidemic situation in some parts of China rebounded, superimposing the off-season of Spring Festival production, which had an impact on the production of manufacturing enterprises; However, under the influence of the "local Chinese New Year" factor, the employee index in February rebounded compared with that in January, which helped accelerate the resumption of enterprises after the festival and provided impetus for the subsequent recovery of production index.
In February, the manufacturing price index rose and the inventory pressure was released. In February, the purchase price and ex factory price indexes of main raw materials were 60.0 and 54.1 respectively, up 3.6 and 3.2 percentage points respectively compared with January. The prices of manufacturing industry generally rose, which squeezed the profit space of enterprises to a certain extent; The rise of commodity prices under the influence of multiple overseas factors may be an important reason. From the perspective of specific industries, in February, the two price indexes of petroleum, coal and other fuel processing, non-ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industries were still in the high range of more than 60.0%, and the purchase cost of raw materials continued to increase, driving the rise of ex factory prices of enterprises. The raw material inventory and finished product inventory indexes were 48.1 and 47.3 respectively, down 1.0 and 0.7 percentage points respectively from January. The production fell during the month and the demand improved significantly, accelerating the inventory consumption of manufacturing enterprises.
The prosperity of large and medium-sized enterprises has increased, and the operating pressure of small enterprises remains. In February, the PMI index of large enterprises was 51.8, up 0.2 percentage points from January, and the PMI index of medium-sized enterprises was 51.4, up 0.9 percentage points from January; The PMI index of small enterprises decreased by 0.9 percentage points again compared with January. In February, the supporting role of large enterprises continued to highlight, and the production and new order indexes continued to expand month on month; Under the background of steady growth, the demand of large enterprises has rebounded faster than that of production, the business activities of enterprises are expected to be positive, and the production willingness of large enterprises is strong. As we judged in the PMI review in January, the PMI of medium-sized enterprises rebounded in February, and the production and new order indexes increased by 0.7 and 3.2 percentage points respectively month on month, pushing up the prosperity of medium-sized enterprises. The operating pressure of small enterprises is still large, and the production and new order index continues to fall compared with January, but the expected index of production and operation activities of small enterprises rose to 56.8 in February, and the effect of steady growth policy may be transmitted to small enterprises.
The non manufacturing index rebounded month on month. In February, the PMI index of non manufacturing industry was 51.6, up 0.5 percentage points from January, and the business activities of non manufacturing industry maintained expansion. From the performance of each sub item, the expected sub items of new export orders, orders in hand, employees and business activities all achieved positive growth compared with January, with increases of 2.1, 0.2, 1.1 and 2.6 percentage points respectively. The new orders and inventory index fell slightly, the outlook of the construction industry remained high, and the performance of the service industry remained weak.
In terms of subdivided industries, the PMI indexes of road and railway transportation industries were 53.2 and 57.1 respectively, up 8.3 and 8.5 percentage points from January, providing strong certainty for the recovery of infrastructure investment during the year.
Risk tip: global inflation is rising too fast; Liquidity flows back to US debt; The global covid-19 epidemic has expanded its impact.
