1、 Last week's economic and market review:
The spread of Omicron mutant virus last week led to a general decline in the prices of crude oil and related varieties, while China's black industry chain rose. Us non farm data were lower than expected, leading to a significant decline in US bond yields.
China's top five commodity prices: pulp 8.77%, glass 7.70%, thread 5.71%, iron ore 5.35%, coking coal 5.19%; Fuel oil - 11.95%, crude oil - 10.10%, LPG - 9.26%, low sulfur fuel oil - 7.94%, cotton yarn - 6.97% precipitation capital inflow and outflow top five (100 million yuan): iron ore 5.83, thread 4.72, PP3 21. Pulp 3.20, fuel 2.93; Shanghai copper -8.50, Zheng cotton-6.51, soybean oil-4.59, styrene-1.97 and huyin-1.84 plate precipitation capital inflow and outflow (100 million yuan): black building materials 13.92, energy and chemical industry 9.17, precious metals -0.41, non-ferrous metals -1.84, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) - 10.62
2、 This week focuses on:
The number of non farm payrolls in the United States increased by 210000 in November, significantly lower than the expected value of 550000, but the unemployment rate fell sharply by 0.4 percentage points to 4.2%. What do you think of the US non farm data in November?
First, the statistical caliber of us non farm employment and unemployment rate is different, and it is possible to deviate in the short term. Non farm employment in the United States is based on payroll data from business and government agencies, while the unemployment rate is based on household employment survey data. Different survey objects may make the two types of data deviate in the short term; In the long run, the two types of data are basically consistent. Second, the slowdown in wage growth in the United States means that the short-term inflationary pressure is weakened, but whether the slowdown in wage growth can continue remains to be seen. The average hourly wage of Non-agricultural enterprises in the United States rose 0.26% quarter on quarter in November, significantly lower than the 0.55% and 0.36% increases in September and October. This may be related to the marginal growth of labor supply in the United States (the labor participation rate in the United States increased by 0.2 percentage points to 61.8% in November) and the slowdown of employment demand growth (the new non-agricultural employment is significantly lower than that in September and October). Considering that some residents permanently withdraw from the labor market, it remains to be seen whether the labor participation rate in the United States can continue to improve. Third, lower than expected new jobs and slower wage increases may make the fed less eager to raise interest rates. Focus on whether the Federal Reserve's interest rate meeting in December will accelerate monetary reduction, but more importantly, whether the slowdown in US wage rise can be sustained. This requires observing the data in the next 1-2 months to make an accurate judgment.
Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus
