Monetary policy: in November, the currency was neutral and loose, and the expectation of RRR reduction increased again; Credit bottomed, the growth rate of social finance may pick up later, and structural easing continues. (1) The central bank launched carbon emission reduction tools and set up 200 billion yuan of special refinancing for clean coal utilization. At the same time, the “flood irrigation” and “general gate” were deleted in the third quarterly report. Monetary structural easing continued to work, and the total attitude was also relaxed. (2) The currency is neutral and loose, and the credit bottomed out or rebounded. In terms of currency, the same amount of MLF was renewed in November, the interest rate of long-term funds remained low, and the short-term funds still fluctuated around the policy profits. In terms of credit, the main support items are government bonds, resident loans and bill financing, and the medium and long-term loans of enterprises are still the main drag; on the other hand, the support for scientific and technological innovation and green development is maintained And the support of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households and new agricultural business entities. The total amount of credit has hit the bottom, the structure is still loose and tight, and the wide credit continues to increase. (3) On the whole, the currency is still stable, and the total amount remains reasonably abundant. In the coming months, the currency is stable and loose, the structure is wide, the currency will continue to develop, and the expectation of standard reduction will also rise. The local hidden debt is still strictly regulated, the margin of real estate credit is relaxed, the issuance of government bonds will continue to support credit, the growth rate of social finance may expand slightly, and the Political Bureau meeting in December will be closely watched in the short term And the central economic work conference.
Fiscal policy: strictly control local debt. The net financing amount of urban investment bonds is still low, while special bonds remain high, and the follow-up will continue. The general office of the State Council pointed out that it was necessary to further strengthen the efforts to help enterprises and relieve them. At the same time, the national standing committee said that it was necessary to reasonably put forward the amount and distribution plan of special bonds for next year. It can be seen that special bonds and support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises will continue to work. (2) At the implementation level, in October, the national public general budget expenditure increased by 2.9% year-on-year, which was higher than that of the previous month due to the low base. At present, the financial expenditure is still accumulating strength, or due to the lack of project reserves. At the same time, the net financing amount of local special bonds in November was 564 billion, which was higher than that in October and remained high. (3) On the whole, the downward pressure on the economy is still great, the finance will continue to make efforts, and the issuance of special bonds will continue to accelerate. The special bonds may be issued in advance next year. Experts expect the amount to remain stable and slightly higher than this year. At the same time, they continue to support small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and pay attention to the resolution of local hidden debts.
Real estate policy: the central government has continued to stabilize credit. After the loosening of development loans and just needed mortgages, the issuance of new bonds by high-quality real estate enterprises has been liberalized. At the same time, the supervision of pre-sale funds and the third batch of local auctions have also been loosened. (1) After the Symposium of representatives of real estate enterprises held by the inter-bank Dealers Association, a number of real estate enterprises registered and issued debt financing in the inter-bank market; according to the data of the central bank, at the end of October, China’s personal housing loans increased by 101.3 billion yuan month on month. The margin of real estate credit continued to relax. At the same time, Liu he signed the article “must achieve high-quality development”, pointing out that he said he wanted to “live in real estate without speculation” Better solve the housing problem of residents and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry. (2) Recently, Chengdu, Beijing and other places have further improved the supervision of commercial housing pre-sale funds, moderately relaxed the withdrawal threshold of real estate enterprises for pre-sale funds and shortened the loan time limit. At the same time, since the centralized land supply in the third batch of cities, the terms have also been relaxed, including raising the upper limit of house price sales, appropriately relaxing the deposit payment period, reducing the threshold of participation in auction, mobilizing the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises, etc According to the data of the Research Institute, in November, the loan interest rates of the first and second houses in 100 cities decreased by 4 and 3 basis points respectively compared with October, and the average lending cycle was also shortened by 5 days compared with the previous month. (3) The growth rate of commercial housing sales area continues to decline, and the prosperity of real estate sales continues to decline. According to the high-frequency data, the weekly commercial housing transaction area of large and medium-sized cities in November 30 increased marginally due to seasonal factors, but it is still weaker than seasonality. From the sub item data of social finance, the residents’ medium and long-term loans have improved, mainly due to the marginal relaxation of real estate policy. In the follow-up, the real estate government The policy is expected to be further relaxed and pay close attention to when real estate sales will stabilize. However, the marginal relaxation of the policy is to support the real estate industry and will not be open and closed. Under the policy of “real estate is not fried”, we will pay more attention to the implementation of the long-term mechanism of real estate and risk prevention.
Infrastructure policy: the benchmark level of energy efficiency in high energy consuming industries will be released, and new energy will continue to develop; The “14th five year plan” industrial plans have been issued one after another, the amount of special bonds next year will be put on the agenda, and infrastructure is expected to underpin the economy. (1) The national development and Reform Commission and other five departments jointly released the benchmark level and benchmark level of energy efficiency in key areas of high energy consuming industries. The transformation, upgrading and elimination of new energy will be implemented in batches within a time limit, and new energy will continue to develop. At the same time, the national Standing Committee pointed out that it is reasonable and appropriate to put forward the “14th five year plan” of next year’s special debt quota and the integration of big data, information and communication, information and industrialization Industrial planning documents have also been released one after another, and the follow-up infrastructure is expected to underpin the economy. (2) At the implementation level, 579.349 billion yuan of new local government bonds were issued in November, and the second batch of infrastructure REITs were over raised. The new infrastructure continued to develop. (3) In the follow-up, the policy requires the physical workload to be formed at the end of this year and the beginning of next year, and the reserve of special bond projects will be started in advance in 2022. It is expected that the growth rate of infrastructure investment will still be repaired upward, but it is still entrusted rather than carried out, so it is difficult to increase significantly.
Overseas policy: the mutated virus in South Africa caused market panic, which needs to be closely observed in the follow-up; The U.S. infrastructure bill was passed, inflation expectations fluctuated at a high level, and the Fed as a whole was hawkish. (1) In terms of the epidemic situation, the South African mutant virus Omicron struck. The United States has imposed restrictions on flights from eight countries including South Africa since November 29, and Japan and Israel announced the closure of the country. Financially, Biden signed a $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill, and the house of Representatives passed Biden’s $1.75 trillion social expenditure bill, which will be considered and voted by the Senate. We believe that the final decision will be made Fiscal stimulus is expected to be implemented, but the specific content of the social expenditure bill may change. In terms of currency, taper landed and Biden nominated Powell for re-election as chairman of the Federal Reserve. The minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting showed that the duration of high inflation may be longer than expected, but the “Omicron” mutant strain triggered market concerns. The expectation of raising interest rates experienced a roller coaster from top to bottom. Recently, Powell said to give up “temporary” inflation and consider ending the debt purchase plan ahead of schedule, At present, the Fed’s policy is generally hawkish. (2) The European Central Bank maintained monetary easing and believed that inflation would return to the 2% target and would not meet the conditions for raising interest rates next year. (3) Taper landed, the epidemic in Europe continued to escalate and the energy crisis continued, but the mutated virus disturbed, the US dollar index went up and down first, and the high inflation expectation fluctuated downward, driving the US bond yield down slightly this month, while US stocks were divided, the Dow index fell and the NASDAQ index rose, and the performance was still the main logic, “Omicron” The mutated virus has raised concerns in the capital market and global assets are in a period of sharp fluctuations.
Risk tips: 1 The impact of “Omicron” mutant virus exceeded expectations; 2. The marginal relaxation of real estate exceeds expectations; 3. The impact of marginal tightening of the Federal Reserve exceeded expectations.
