Macro categories:
Recently, news of China’s steady growth has been heard frequently: first, under the factors of strong external demand and repeated overseas epidemics, China’s export data in November again exceeded expectations. Due to the base of 13% month on month in November last year, the year-on-year growth rate of exports in November slowed down, but the average growth rate in two years was 21.2%, which was still further improved compared with the previous value. Secondly, at present, the market is still expected to reduce the LPR interest rate to some extent, although the central bank lowered the interest rate for supporting agriculture and small loans after reducing the reserve requirement. Finally, it is optimistic about the upcoming central economic work conference this month, or boost the investment side. The key to follow-up lies in the progress of special bond issuance and changes in credit data such as bank lending.
There are also new positive news about vaccines overseas. The effectiveness of plant-derived covid-19 vaccine jointly developed by GSK Medicago to delta and gamma variants exceeds 75%. The advantages of plant-derived vaccine such as rapid and large-scale production and simple storage conditions help to promote the global vaccination rate. With regard to the covid-19o variant, vaccine manufacturers Pfizer and biontech are expected to release the latest data on the effectiveness of the current vaccine against Omicron by the end of this week. In addition, in the context of rising expectations of monetary tightening, the interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on December 16 are particularly important. Generally speaking, the short-term market sentiment has warmed up, especially under the expectation of stable growth in China, we can pay attention to the short-term opportunities of the three major stock indexes and domestic demand industries.
Strategy (strength ranking): three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) > commodities (domestic demand industrial products, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) ) > treasury bonds;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; Deterioration of Sino US relations; The situation in the Taiwan Strait
