The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. The Politburo meeting in December every year has always been a briefing for the central economic work conference to set the main tone for next year's economic work. According to the law, this year's central economic work conference is also expected to be held in the next one to two weeks.
The Politburo meeting made a positive evaluation of the economy in 2021 and emphasized the achievements of economic transformation, especially "the accelerated development of national strategic scientific and technological forces and the improvement of the toughness and advantages of the industrial chain", which is also consistent with China's economic reality and long-term policy objectives in the transition period during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
Transformation is a long-term keyword of China's economic growth during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The emphasis on scientific and technological innovation in this Politburo meeting has increased again, which corresponds to the goal of China's long-term economic transformation during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The focus of long-term economic policy is reform and the use of scientific and technological innovation to promote the growth of total factor productivity. Stability will be the focus of economic work next year. The key word "stability" has been put forward many times at this Politburo meeting. The overall tone of next year's economic work is "stability first, seeking progress in stability" and "strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and maintain the stability of the overall social situation". Therefore, we believe that the focus of next year's work is stability, and the goal of economic growth will remain above and below the potential economic growth.
At the macro policy level, fiscal and monetary policies ensure economic stability. Economic work in 2022 needs to take into account the dual objectives of short-term stability and long-term transformation, and macro policies will also have dual characteristics. From the perspective of maintaining short-term stability, this Politburo meeting held that "macro policies should be stable and effective, and continue to implement active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy"; From the perspective of ensuring the goal of long-term transformation, this Politburo meeting emphasized the accuracy of fiscal policy and the flexibility of monetary policy, and the structural characteristics of macro aggregate policy are more distinct. At the level of industrial policy, science and technology consumption helps economic transformation. The long-term goal of the industrial policy of this Politburo meeting is to promote high-quality economic growth, of which two important focuses are science and technology and consumption. In terms of science and technology, this Politburo meeting not only stressed the importance and necessity of scientific and technological innovation driving economic development, but also stressed the practicability of "accelerating the implementation of scientific and technological policies". In terms of consumption, we should "implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand and promote the sustainable recovery of consumption", so as to enhance the endogenous driving force. An important policy point for how to implement the expansion of domestic demand is to "grasp the bottom line of people's livelihood". In the long run, consumption depends on Residents' income. First, residents' income increases steadily and second, residents' income is distributed reasonably. Therefore, this Politburo meeting proposed to "implement the employment priority policy" to ensure the stable growth of residents' income. At the same time, it is also necessary to improve the income distribution system, especially under the policy of common prosperity, and further improve government services, "Promote the national overall planning of basic old-age insurance and improve the system of providing basic public services in permanent residence".
The goal of real estate policy is to meet the reasonable housing demand and promote the healthy development of the industry. For the real estate policy, although the Political Bureau meeting did not mention the keyword "real estate is not fried", the goal of real estate regulation has not changed, and it is still "the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry". Since July, the real estate industry has experienced a rapid decline. Of course, there is a structure in which policies work together, but it is also the internal root of the instability of the industry under the high turnover mode. Since October, the real estate policy has begun to correct the deviation, and the real estate credit has been relaxed, but the main purpose is still to "better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers", rather than returning to the old road of promoting short-term economic growth with real estate.
