In November, China’s export growth rate was stable at a high level, and the two-year average annual compound growth rate also increased steadily, pointing to strong export toughness. Through the dismantling of quantity and price factors, we found that in the growth of export amount of China’s main commodities in November, the contribution of price rebounded again and still dominated. In November, China’s import growth also rose synchronously, which narrowed the surplus compared with last month. Looking ahead, if the Omicron variant causes the global epidemic to spread again, China’s export toughness may be enhanced.
Export growth remains resilient. In November, China’s exports denominated in US dollars recorded a year-on-year growth rate of 22%, The growth rate was lower than that in October (27.1%), but the two-year compound annual growth rate was 21.3%, lower than that in October (18.7%) increased, indicating that China’s exports are still resilient. The decline in export growth this month is mainly due to the sharp increase in the base number in the same period last year. If the base period factor is excluded, exports still perform strongly this month. On the one hand, the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe and the United States in November led to the increase in the demand for epidemic prevention materials; on the other hand, December is also the traditional shopping season in the west, and the number of orders before Christmas Increase is also an important support for China’s export growth.
Price remains the main contribution. Recently, the contribution of price factor in export growth has increased, although the year-on-year growth rate of export price index in October fell to 8.1%. However, by disassembling the export growth of more than a dozen commodities according to the factors of quantity and price, we find that in the export amount growth of China’s main commodities in November, the contribution of price to export growth rose again, still dominant, while the contribution of volume growth is relatively limited. By category, the contribution rate of price factor to the export growth of mechanical and electrical products is higher than that of labor-intensive products.
Exports to the United States and Europe fell. From the perspective of major countries and regions, The sharp decline in exports to the United States (5.3%) and the European Union (33.5%) is mainly due to the sharp increase in the base in the same period last year. From the two-year average annual compound growth rate, exports to the United States (24%) and Europe (20.4%) the growth rate is still rising compared with the previous month, pointing to the resilience of exports to Europe and the United States, mainly due to the boost of the shopping season and the rising demand caused by the repeated epidemic. In November, the high PMI of manufacturing industries in the United States, the eurozone, the United Kingdom and Japan increased slightly. Exports to Japan (12.6%) fell slightly, but exports to ASEAN (22.3%) exports increased slightly, or because the delta epidemic in Southeast Asia basically ended in November and industrial production was liberalized.
Most export categories fell. Compared with the growth rate in October, the year-on-year growth rate of labor-intensive, high-tech and electromechanical products decreased due to the high base effect, which were 14.8%, 14.2% and 17.0% respectively. In mechanical and electrical products, Integrated circuits (37.3%) performed well. Under the high base effect, the export growth rate still increased, the growth rate of automatic data processing equipment was stable (18.4%), household appliances decreased (21.8%), LCD panels (25.5%) and automobile chassis (99.2%) decreased due to the high base effect, and the hand machine decreased significantly (- 19.7%). Among labor-intensive products, shoes and boots (43.6%) performed well, and the export growth rate increased compared with the previous month.
Import growth has increased. In November, China’s imports increased by 31.7% year-on-year, 20.6% higher than the previous value, and the two-year compound annual growth rate was 17.4%, also 12.4% higher than the previous value. In November, the new order index rebounded to 49.4%, pointing to the improvement of low demand. In terms of amount, Crude oil (80%) rebounded significantly, while iron ore (1.9%) and copper (27%) increased due to low base. In terms of quantity, the increase of import growth of iron ore (6.9%), copper (- 9.1%) and crude oil (- 7.9%) was mainly due to the decline of base in the same period last year. Among electromechanical products, machine tools (43.5%) and automatic data processing equipment (43.6%) the import growth rate performed well. The import growth rate of coal and natural gas increased sharply, recording 762.6% and 169% respectively, or due to the upward demand caused by China’s tight energy supply in the early stage and the low base effect.
The surplus has narrowed. China’s trade surplus in November was US $71.71 billion, narrower than that in October. Affected by the delta mutant virus, the global epidemic has occurred repeatedly, and the number of newly confirmed and dead cases in Europe and the United States has rebounded again. The rise of dead cases has a strong pull on the demand for epidemic prevention materials, so that the export growth rate of China’s epidemic prevention materials is still stable at about 8% under the condition of a significant increase in the base. Looking ahead, if the Omicron variant causes the global epidemic to spread again, China’s export toughness may be enhanced.
Risk tip: policy changes, economic recovery is less than expected.
