According to the data of the General Administration of customs, in the first 11 months of this year, China’s total import and export value was 35.39 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22% and 24% over the same period in 2019. Among them, the export was 19.58 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.8%, an increase of 25.8% over the same period in 2019; The import was 15.81 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 22.2%, an increase of 21.8% over the same period in 2019; The trade surplus was 3.77 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 20.1%.
Exports maintained a high boom. In November 2021, China’s export growth rate was 22%, and the two-year compound annual growth rate was 21.3%, Compared with October (18.7%) increased and continued to exceed expectations. The higher than expected export data this month is related not only to the impact of Omicron on the overseas epidemic, but also to the overseas Christmas and other peak consumption seasons near the end of the year. From the perspective of exporting countries, exports to Southeast Asia increased slightly, up to 22.3%, or benefited from the good control of the ASEAN epidemic. China’s exports are expected to continue to benefit from the whole world in the future The global economy recovers and China’s production side takes the lead in recovering to make up for the gap at the overseas supply side and maintain high growth. The International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economic growth will be 5.9% in 2021, and the World Trade Organization predicts that the global trade in goods will increase by 10.8% this year. We believe that it has become normal for exports to continue to exceed expectations in recent years. We should not be too pessimistic about the decline of exports in 2022. The overseas economy continues to recover, which still provides strong support for the sustained growth of China’s exports.
Import data continued to grow. In November, China’s imports increased by 31.7% year-on-year, 20.6% higher than the previous value, and the two-year compound annual growth rate was 17.4%, also 12.4% higher than the previous value. Compared with exports, imports are more seasonal. The forefront of imports this month is mainly resource products represented by coal, natural gas and oil. On the one hand, it is affected by China’s policy of ensuring supply and price stability, on the other hand, it is also boosted by China’s sustained economic recovery. Overall, with the recovery of the overall overseas economy, the support for China’s foreign trade has increased. If the density of Omicron accelerates, China’s unique advantages in epidemic prevention and control will be verified again, and the dislocation advantages of Chinese and foreign economies will be further consolidated. With the gradual peaking of PPI indicators, the impact of price pressure on commodity imports is expected to be further reduced. We expect the year-on-year import data at the end of the year to fall.
Risk statement
The epidemic development exceeded expectations; The progress of reform is less than expected; Economic data exceeded expectations; Uncertainty risk, etc.
