In November 2021, the cumulative year-on-year growth of import and export was 31.4% and 31.1% respectively, with a change of 0 and - 1.2 percentage points respectively compared with October, of which the year-on-year growth of import and export was 31.7% and 22.0% respectively, with a change of 11.1 and - 5.1 percentage points respectively compared with October. The relatively weak base influence and more obvious month on month expansion made the import growth rate far exceed the export growth in the current month, and contributed to the significant decline of the trade surplus in the current month. The trade surplus of US $71.7 billion in November was not only nearly US $13 billion lower than that in October, but also slightly lower than that of US $74.2 billion in the same period last year. It is worth noting that the overseas epidemic has repeatedly made the global supply and demand gap close slowly. Behind the decline in year-on-year growth is the highly resilient export expansion. Moreover, the boosting effect of domestic demand protection policies on imports is also worthy of continuous attention, and the recovery of import prosperity is expected to continue.
By product category, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of high-tech and electromechanical products exports in the first November was 30.4% and 26.7% respectively, down 1.8 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from January to October; In terms of regions, China's export growth to major countries and regions generally fell from January to November. In addition to the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the EU, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States, ASEAN and Japan decreased by 3.4, 0.7 and 0.5 percentage points to 28.3%, 27.9% and 17.1% respectively.
Looking ahead, the base impact on exports in December is expected to weaken, and the overseas epidemic situation is severe again, which is conducive to the maintenance of export toughness. Therefore, the year-on-year growth rate of the current month may be the same as that in November; In terms of import data, although the price contribution is expected to weaken, the boost of steady growth measures to demand may be enhanced, so the year-on-year growth rate of imports is also expected to be flat in November.
Risk tip: the development of international epidemic situation exceeded expectations
