Macro balance sheet: marginal recovery of real estate sales

Macro market:

[central bank] on December 8, the central bank maintained that the liquidity of the banking system was reasonable and abundant, and carried out RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase operation by means of interest rate bidding, with the bid winning interest rate of 2.20%. Since RMB 10 billion reverse repurchase expired on that day, zero net investment and zero net return were realized.

[finance] on December 8, the main contracts of various varieties of treasury bond futures fluctuated in a narrow range. As of the afternoon closing, the ten-year main contract fell 0.06%; The five-year main contract fell 0.05%; The main force in the two-year period fell 0.02%. The yield of major inter-bank interest rate bonds fluctuated in a narrow range and rose slightly. The yield of 10-year CDB active bond 210205 rose 0.75bp to 3.245%, and the yield of 10-year Treasury bond 200016 rose 0.78bp to 2.9068%.

[finance] on December 8, most money market interest rates rose, and inter-bank funds still showed a convergence trend. The one-day interbank borrowing between banks and depositors was reported at 2.1582%, up 1.51 basis points; The 7-day report was 2.2222%, up 4.74 basis points; The 14 day report was 2.2544%, up 8.53 basis points; The one-month report was 2.6094%, down 2.54 basis points. The one-day varieties of inter bank pledged repo were reported at 2.1446%, up 1.44 basis points; The 7-day report was 2.2046%, up 5.27 basis points; The 14 day report was 2.2267%, up 10.79 basis points; The one-month report was 2.5999%, up 10.43 basis points.

[enterprise] on December 8, most of the yields of credit bonds of various maturities rose slightly, and nearly 100 billion yuan was traded throughout the day, including nearly 25 billion yuan of urban investment bonds. A total of 1237 inter-bank and exchange credit bonds (corporate bonds, corporate bonds, medium notes, short-term financing and directional instruments) were traded, with a total turnover of 98.7 billion yuan. Among them, 618 credit bonds rose, 124 credit bonds were flat and 455 credit bonds fell.

[residents] on December 8, the number of commercial housing transactions in 30 large and medium-sized cities and first tier cities was + 112% and the area of commercial housing transactions was + 102% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in second tier cities was + 64% compared with the previous day, and the transaction area of commercial housing was + 68% compared with the previous day; The number of commercial housing transactions in the third tier cities was + 47% and the transaction area of commercial housing was + 95% compared with the previous day.

Recent focus: the market continues to be in a stagflation environment, focusing on the central bank’s structural monetary policy in the fourth quarter

 

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