Key points of the report
The number of job vacancies in the United States rose instead of falling in October, to 11 million, only 100000 lower than the peak in July. At present, the number of non-agricultural job vacancies is 3.8 million higher than before the epidemic. According to the cumulative decline rate of 100000 from August to October, the non-agricultural job vacancies will still be at a high level next year, which will lead to rapid wage growth in the United States and promote price rise. Of course, it is not ruled out that the decline of non-agricultural job vacancies will accelerate in the future. The labor participation rate in the United States increased by 0.2 percentage points in November, suggesting that some residents return to the labor market, but whether this can continue remains to be seen. Generally speaking, we still need to be vigilant against the risk that the continued tension in the US labor market will lead to higher inflation than expected, which will lead to the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in advance.
Summary:
Asset performance and capital changes:
China’s top five commodity prices: crude oil 1.97%, pulp 1.92%, fuel 1.41%, Shanghai lead 1.40%, Shanghai zinc 1.36%; Soda ash – 7.71%, ferrosilicon – 3.78%, glass – 3.77%, PVC – 3.03%, urea – 2.82%
The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Shanghai nickel 1.39, Liandou 1.14, pulp 1.04, iron ore 0.98 and crude oil 0.88; Palm -2.70, Hutong -2.05, soybean meal -1.86, hot coil -1.58, Husi -1.00
Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (100 million yuan): non ferrous metals -0.34, precious metals -0.23, black building materials -0.86, energy and chemical industry -2.22, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) – 4.64
Important news and economic data:
The first covid-19 virus neutralizing antibody combination therapy drug with independent intellectual property rights in China was approved for listing.
The U.S. House of Representatives has passed an agreement bill that allows the Senate to raise the U.S. debt ceiling by a simple majority.
European Central Bank Vice President jindos said that it will take longer than previously expected for the current high inflation in the eurozone to fall back to the target level of 2%. Inflation will begin to decline at the beginning of next year and approach the target level of 2% in the second half of the year.
The Bank of Canada kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 0.25%, in line with market expectations. The Bank of Canada said it no longer considered inflation temporary and expected the output gap to narrow in mid-2022.
The number of job vacancies in the United States jumped to 11 million in October, the second highest level on record, highlighting the challenges faced by employers in filling job vacancies. The data of the previous month was unexpectedly revised up to 10.6 million.
Japan’s real GDP in the third quarter fell by 3.6% on an annualized quarter on quarter basis, is expected to fall by 3.1% and the initial value fell by 3%.
Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus
