Key investment points:
Event: China’s CPI in November rose by 2.3% year-on-year, is expected to rise by 2.5%, and the previous value rose by 1.5%. In November, PPI increased by 12.9% year-on-year, expected to increase by 12.0%, and the previous value increased by 13.5%.
The year-on-year increase in CPI expanded and the decline in pork prices narrowed. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of CPI was 2.3%, an increase of 0.8 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the tail warping factor affected the year-on-year growth rate of CPI by about 0.6 percentage points, an increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month. Specifically, food prices changed from negative to positive year-on-year, from a decrease of 2.4% last month to an increase of 1.6%, affecting the increase of CPI by about 0.30 percentage points. By item, pork prices fell by 32.7%, 11.3 percentage points lower than last month; Fresh vegetable prices rose by 30.6%, an increase of 14.7 percentage points over the previous month; The prices of eggs, freshwater fish and edible vegetable oil increased by 20.1%, 18.0% and 9.7% respectively. Among non food products, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 3.9%, with an increase of 0.1 percentage points, of which the prices of gasoline and diesel increased by 36.7% and 40.6% respectively; Service prices rose by 1.5%, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points over the previous month.
CPI fell month on month, and service prices changed from increase to decrease. In November, CPI rose by 0.4% month on month, and the growth rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points over the previous month. Among them, the increase in food prices expanded by 0.7 percentage points month on month, recording 2.4%, affecting the increase in CPI by about 0.43 percentage points. Specifically, affected by the seasonal recovery of pork consumption and the tight supply of short-term fat pigs, pork prices changed from decline to rise, up 12.2%; Many measures were taken to ensure the supply of “vegetable basket”, the supply of fresh vegetables increased, and the month on month increase in fresh vegetable prices fell sharply by 9.8 percentage points, recording 6.8%. Non food prices were flat from a 0.4% rise last month. Specifically, the price of industrial consumer goods rose by 0.3%, down 0.6 percentage points from the previous month. Among them, affected by factors such as guaranteed supply and stable price, the price increase of gasoline, diesel and LPG remained between 1.2% – 3.3%, falling month on month; The service price increased by 0.1% from the previous month to decreased by 0.3%. Affected by the reduction of travel after the festival and the spread of the epidemic, the prices of air tickets, travel agency fees and hotel accommodation decreased by 14.8%, 3.8% and 3.7% respectively.
The role of the policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices appeared. In November, the high year-on-year growth rate of PPI fell, and the chain was flat. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI fell for the first time since July, recording 12.9%, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month, of which the tail warping affected the year-on-year growth rate of PPI by about 1.2 percentage points, a decrease of 0.6 percentage points compared with the previous month. The prices of means of production and means of living increased by 17.0% and 1.0% respectively year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points and expanding 0.4 percentage points respectively compared with the previous month. Among the 40 industrial categories surveyed, 92.5% of the prices rose, expanding month on month. From the chain comparison, the increase of PPI in November was 2.5 percentage points lower than that of the previous month, which was flat. Among them, the price of means of production decreased by 0.1%, and the increase fell by 3.4 percentage points; The price of means of subsistence increased by 0.4%, and the increase was expanded by 0.3 percentage points. Specifically, due to the continuous increase of coal production and market supply and the effect of maintaining supply and stabilizing price in the metal industry, the prices of coal mining and washing industry, coal processing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry, nonferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry all changed from increase to decrease, with a month on month decrease of 4.9%, 8.4%, 4.8% and 1.2% respectively. In addition, affected by the high fluctuation of international crude oil and natural gas prices, the prices of oil exploitation, refined petroleum products manufacturing, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing increased by 7.1%, 4.7% and 0.7% respectively.
The year-on-year growth rate of CPI may rise steadily, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI may fall from a high level. On the whole, CPI continued to rise year-on-year in November, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI fell somewhat, flat month on month. In terms of CPI, pork prices stabilized and rebounded, and the year-on-year decline narrowed significantly; The increase of fresh vegetable prices fell sharply month on month, and the year-on-year increase was significantly expanded; In terms of service prices, the year-on-year increase increased slightly, and the month on month change from up to down. In terms of PPI, under the influence of the policy of ensuring supply and price stability, the rapid rise in the prices of energy and raw materials such as coal and metals has been initially curbed, the rise of PPI has dropped, and the ppi-cpi scissors gap has narrowed. Looking forward to December, in terms of CPI, the year-on-year growth of CPI may rise steadily due to the increase of residents’ consumption demand at the end of the year and the price transmission from upstream raw materials to downstream consumer goods. In terms of PPI, under the influence of a number of policies to ensure supply and stabilize prices in China, bulk commodities fell moderately, and the year-on-year growth rate of PPI in December may continue to fall at a high level.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks at home and abroad, changes in commodity prices, and unexpected changes in China’s policies
