event:
In November, the PPI of national industrial producers rose by 12.9% year-on-year, unchanged month on month.
comment:
1. In November, the year-on-year growth rate of PPI began to decline
In terms of means of production, PPI increased by 17.0% year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the previous month; In terms of means of living, PPI increased by 1.0% year-on-year, a small increase of 0.4 percentage points over the previous month.
By industry, among the 30 major industries, the year-on-year increase of PPI increased by 22 compared with the previous month, flat by 0 and declining by 8; Compared with the previous month, 12 PPI rose month on month, 2 were flat and 16 fell.
Overall, affected by the global energy inflation control, China Shipbuilding Industry Group Power Co.Ltd(600482) coal supply guarantee and the relaxation of dual control power rationing, the price of industrial products peaked in November.
2. The order of PPI strength of commodity related industries in November is: Black > energy chemical > colored > Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061)
From the perspective of black commodity related industries, the coal mining and washing industry performed strongly, with PPI increasing by 88.8% year-on-year, down 14.9 percentage points from the previous month; Ferrous metal smelting and calendering processing industry and ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry fluctuated at a high level, with PPI of 31.0% and 9.5% respectively year-on-year.
From the perspective of non-ferrous commodity related industries, the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry performed strongly, and PPI increased by 26.5% year-on-year; PPI of non-ferrous metal mining and beneficiation industry increased by 13.1% year-on-year, and the increase was lower than that of last month.
From the perspective of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) related industries, the agricultural and sideline food processing industry continued to recover, with PPI increasing by 3.4% year-on-year, a small increase compared with the previous month.
From the perspective of energy and chemical products related industries, the oil and natural gas exploitation industry, oil & coal and other fuel processing industry, chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry and chemical fiber manufacturing industry increased by 68.5%, 53.1%, 29.6% and 24.6% respectively year-on-year, and the prosperity and toughness continued; The outlook of the textile industry, rubber and plastic products industry, textile and clothing industry and clothing industry increased slightly.
3. Affected by the fundamentals of increased supply and weak demand, PPI may continue to fall in December
At present, Europe and the United States have fallen into a macro situation of stagflation, while China’s economy continues to decline. Considering the U.S. government’s suppression of energy inflation policy, there is still a risk of the spread of O variant virus, and the Federal Reserve may accelerate the contraction rate in December, we believe that foreign demand commodities such as crude oil related commodity chain and new energy non-ferrous metals may show a high and wide fluctuation pattern in December.
In terms of China’s upstream supply, the national development and Reform Commission has taken a number of measures to ensure the supply of power coal, and the high spot inventory of power coal has significantly suppressed the momentum of price rise; In addition, the deviation correction of the dual control high-voltage policy and the power shortage were significantly alleviated, and the industrial production of upstream and midstream enterprises was further restored, which alleviated the risk of continued upward inflation of domestic demand commodities to a certain extent.
In terms of downstream construction activities in China, the sales volume of excavators in China fell 53% year-on-year in November, the largest year-on-year decline in the year, and the downturn trend was likely to continue in December; We expect that from December to the first quarter of next year, real estate related indicators will continue to be depressed, but we do not rule out the short-term marginal improvement of November data; Since late October, the release of special bonds of local governments has accelerated, mostly in southern provinces, which is expected to have a marginal supporting effect on the construction from December to the first quarter of next year.
At the policy level, under the tone of “six stabilities and six guarantees” of the previous prime minister and “countercyclical” of Vice Prime Minister Liu He, the GDP growth rate should be maintained in a reasonable range next year. The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. It also pointed out that we should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, actively expand effective investment, promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry.
Therefore, we believe that although the policy has been basically clear, in December, domestic demand commodities such as black building materials and chemical finished products will face the adverse situation of increasing the marginal supply of enterprise industrial production and difficult to further improve downstream demand. The spot price of domestic demand commodities is still easy to fall and difficult to rise. It is noteworthy that some varieties on the futures disk have basically priced the policy expectations, the variety valuation has been basically repaired, and the subsequent weak spot trend continues. It does not rule out that the futures disk has entered the trading rhythm of deteriorating fundamentals again.
We expect that from December to the first quarter of next year, the overall domestic demand commodities will still be under pressure, and the overall commodities are expected to stabilize and rebound from the second quarter; The first half of the year may gradually enter a new cycle of moderately small leverage, wide currency, wide credit and wide finance, which will strongly support the further shock and strength of the commodity index in the second half of the year.
