In November, the growth rate of social finance was 10.1%, slightly higher than the previous value by 0.1 percentage points, which was confirmed by the data.
The social finance data in November confirmed that the worst moment at the credit end has passed.
The year-on-year growth rate of social finance has stabilized and rebounded for two consecutive months for the first time since October last year.
In addition, the M1 growth rate this month rebounded for the first time since January this year, and the “m2-m1 scissors difference” narrowed, reflecting the recovery of enterprise investment and financing and other fund utilization activities.
At present, one of the ways to stabilize credit is to stabilize real estate and financial cash flow
The first way to stabilize credit is mainly realized by the rapid expansion of urban investment bonds and real estate bonds under the statistics of corporate bonds, and the medium and long-term loans of residents reached a new high in the same period.
The expansion of urban investment bonds is related to the active acquisition of land by urban investment in the third round of land auction, which helps to improve the liquidity of local government departments. The relaxation of real estate bond financing conditions helps to alleviate the cash flow pressure of real estate enterprises. Residents’ medium and long-term loans have increased year-on-year for two consecutive months, reflecting the acceleration of real estate sales collection and the improvement of real estate enterprises’ sales collection.
Linking the performance of urban investment bonds, real estate bonds and residents’ medium and long-term loans in November, we find that the main logic of stabilizing credit is to stabilize the cash flow of the real estate chain, focusing on solving the current liquidity pressure of local governments and real estate enterprises.
At present, the second way to stabilize credit is for the government and urban investment to expand leverage
The second way to stabilize credit is mainly reflected in the rapid leverage of the government and urban investment departments.
We find an interesting “leverage conversion” logic: when the traditional model cools down, residents’ leverage is constrained, and real estate enterprises
Leverage is also constrained. At this time, urban investment enterprises add leverage to support the bottom, so as to objectively prevent the further rapid decline of land transfer fees.
The current credit stabilization measures are still moderate, and it is expected that the policy will continue to increase in the future
First, the liquidity pressure of real estate enterprises will continue. In the first half of next year, foreign dollar bonds and trust products of real estate enterprises will usher in the maturity peak.
Second, the enthusiasm of most real estate enterprises to acquire land has not been significantly repaired, and the land transaction has not been significantly improved.
Third, the marginal improvement of indicators in all links of real estate is still at a historical low, and there is still a distance from returning to normal.
Risk tips:
Wider credit rhythm than expected; The real estate regulation policy exceeded expectations.
