Event: on December 9, 2021, the central bank released data showing that RMB loans from financial institutions increased by 1.27 trillion in November, an increase of 443.8 billion month on month and a decrease of 160.5 billion year on year; At the end of November, the year-on-year growth rate of RMB loan balance was 11.7%, 0.2 and 1.1 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
In November, the increment of social financing scale was 2.61 trillion yuan, 478.6 billion yuan more than the same period of last year and 620.4 billion yuan more than the same period of 2019; At the end of November, the stock of social financing scale was 311.9 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.1%, 0.1 percentage points higher and 2.5 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and the same period of last year respectively.
At the end of November, M2 increased by 8.5% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points lower than that at the end of last month and 2.2 percentage points lower than that in the same period of last year; M1 increased by 3.0% year-on-year, 0.2 percentage points higher than the end of last month and 7 percentage points lower than the same period of last year.
Main points:
On the whole, the financial data in November showed that the current round of wide credit process started slowly, and the current economic downward pressure is more obvious. The latter is highlighted in the downturn of medium and long-term corporate loans, the contraction of off balance sheet bill financing, and the continued low growth rate of M1. This means that the central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction in December is highly targeted, indicating that the regulators have paid full attention to the current operation of the real economy, especially the increasing operating difficulties of small, medium and micro enterprises.
The weak credit performance in November was mainly due to the weak credit growth of enterprises, reflecting the low risk preference of banks on the supply side, cautious credit supply, and insufficient effective financing demand of enterprises on the demand side. In terms of residents' loans, due to the loose margin of the housing loan policy, the medium and long-term loans of residents continued to increase year-on-year in November, but the short-term loans of residents increased significantly compared with the same period, or it reflected that residents' consumption was still sluggish under the disturbance of the epidemic situation in the current month.
In November, social finance increased significantly compared with the same period, which led to a slight rebound in the growth rate of social finance stock at the end of the month. However, from the perspective of sub items, this was mainly driven by government bond financing and corporate bond financing. The reasons were that the issuance of corporate bonds was blocked due to the "financial backwardness" and the default events in the same period last year, which meant that the start of this round of "wide credit" was slow.
At the end of November, the growth rate of M2 fell. On the one hand, it was affected by the increase of the base in the same period of last year, and at the same time, the credit increased less year-on-year, which also dragged down the derivation of deposits; However, fiscal expenditure increased significantly in November. At the end of November, M1 growth continued to be low, which is not only directly related to the "cold wave" of the real estate market, but also reflects the increasing downward pressure on the current economy and the decline in the activity of the real economy.
Looking ahead, with the continuous fine-tuning of macro policies in the direction of stable growth, especially the recovery of the real estate financing environment and the increase of fiscal expenditure, the growth rate of credit and social finance is expected to accelerate simultaneously in December. The follow-up "wide credit" process will shift from government financing to two wheel drive of enterprise and government financing. This will be an important guarantee for stabilizing the macroeconomic market in the first half of next year.
