Denominated in US dollars, China’s total import and export volume in November was US $579.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 26.1%, an increase of 42.8% over the same period in 2019, and an average increase of 19.5% over the two years. Among them, the export was 325.5 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 22% (market expectation of 17.2%), with an average growth of 21.2% in two years; the import was 253.8 billion US dollars, a year-on-year increase of 31.7% (market expectation of 18.2%), with an average growth of 17.4% in two years; the trade surplus was 71.71 billion US dollars, with a year-on-year contraction of 3.4%.
1、 Export: overseas consumer demand and manufacturing repair support China’s export
In November, the export amount reached a new high. Although the year-on-year growth rate slowed down due to the base effect, the average growth rate in the two years continued to rise. Since the second half of this year, on the one hand, the export boom has been supported by strong external demand, on the other hand, the contribution from the rise of export prices has increased significantly. In the process of overseas recovery, although the old and new demand is facing transformation, the growth rate of manufacturing inputs and travel social commodities in the post epidemic era is accelerating, and the short-term demand caused by the epidemic is expected to fall, the demand for old commodities is still supported and maintained not weak due to the repeated epidemic, the disorder of supply chain and the high gap between supply and demand.
In terms of commodity categories, the overall growth of the three major categories of commodities remained high in November. First, consumer goods are generally supported by overseas Christmas consumption season. Social travel clothing, shoes and other products grew upward; Although the growth rate of housing economy and real estate post cycle commodities slows down, it is still not weak in terms of amount and month on month growth; Electronic products and automobiles continued to maintain high growth. Second, manufacturing raw materials and intermediate products are driven by overseas production and repair. In November, the manufacturing boom in the United States and Europe rebounded, and manufacturing inventory replenishment may boost China’s exports of related commodities. The growth of raw materials such as steel and aluminum increased, and the export amount of mechanical and electrical products reached a new high, reaching US $194.6 billion. Third, the growth rate of commodity exports of epidemic prevention materials increased month on month, which was mainly affected by the deterioration of the global epidemic in November.
In terms of regions, China’s exports to major trading partners maintained high growth in November. Due to the disturbance of the base effect, the growth rate of exports to the United States fell rapidly, but from the two-year average growth rate, the growth rate of exports to the United States and the European Union accelerated. In addition, the two-year average growth rate of exports to other major countries and regions also rose to varying degrees, reflecting the resonance of demand driven by overseas recovery.
2、 Import: price rise is still the main driving force, and the margin of actual demand has improved
In November, the import amount increased significantly month on month, exceeding the scale of US $250 billion for the first time, and the average growth rate in the two years also rose again. On the one hand, the price increase factor is still the main driving force, on the other hand, the margin of actual import demand has improved. From September to October, the number of imports classified by HS contracted continuously year-on-year, and the price growth rebounded upward again. In November, the commodity price index RJ / CRB fell slightly month on month, but the year-on-year growth rate was still high. Preliminary data show that in addition to iron ore, the price of crude oil and various raw materials continued to rise in November. However, driven by the vigorous export industrial chain and the rectification of China’s power and production restriction, the contraction of import volume has slowed down.
In terms of products, the import growth of various products increased as a whole in November. First, the import growth of fuel commodities, including coal and natural gas, increased significantly, mainly due to China’s guaranteed supply and increased import. Second, the growth rate of raw materials, including metals, wood, rubber and textile materials, may reflect the marginal improvement of the manufacturing industry. Third, the import amount of intermediate products and mechanical and electrical products in the manufacturing industry also reached a new high. In addition to alleviating the global core shortage, the export industrial chain also boosted the import of relevant intermediate products.
Regionally, the year-on-year growth rate of imports from China’s independent trading partners generally accelerated. Among them, the growth rate of imports from the United States increased by 17.5 percentage points to 22% compared with the previous month. Imports from the European Union turned to positive growth. The growth rate of imports from ASEAN, Japan and South Korea also continued to accelerate, or it was related to the repair of manufacturing industry in the United States and Europe and the recovery of global industrial chain.
3、 Prospect: the export boom at the beginning of next year is at an inflection point, and the repair of the epidemic situation is still uncertain
The overseas consumption peak season superimposed production repair and replenishment of inventory to support China’s export amount to maintain a high level. Looking ahead, China’s exports will remain booming during the year as overseas consumer demand and manufacturing recovery drive the resonance of the global industrial chain. The global supply disorder has eased. In the first quarter of next year, with the transformation of overseas demand and the weakening of China’s substitution effect, the export boom is expected to fall.
