Event description
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. Xi Jinping deliver an important speech at the meeting, summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022. In his speech, Li Keqiang made specific arrangements for next year's economic work and made a concluding speech.
Event comments
The central economic work conference in 2021 continued the main tone of the Politburo meeting on December 6. Steady growth next year is the main line of the policy.
Both fiscal and monetary policies will be strengthened. The meeting pointed out the need to "ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and speed up the progress of expenditure." Last year's statement was to "maintain moderate expenditure intensity". Removing "moderation" and emphasizing "accelerating progress" shows that the intensity and pace of fiscal policy next year will be stronger than this year. Monetary policy is expressed as "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, and guide financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development." Different from the statements in 2020 and 2019, there is no similar reference in this meeting that the money supply and social finance growth should match the nominal economic growth, which reserves more space for monetary policy. We believe that financing support tools for small and medium-sized enterprises and science and technology will continue to be introduced in the future.
The real estate regulation policy has been corrected. The meeting continued to emphasize the guidance of "no speculation in housing" and simultaneous development of rental and purchase, but removed the reference of "land supply should be inclined to rental housing construction" in 2020, and pointed out that it is necessary to "promote the construction of indemnificatory housing and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers". In contrast, last year's expression tends to "subtract", while this year's expression tends to "add". Recent data on the financing of real estate enterprises and residents show that the tighter regulatory policies in the first three quarters of this year have been corrected to a certain extent. This meeting did not mention the macro leverage ratio. Our understanding is that the macro leverage ratio will be relatively flexible next year.
The expression of the "double carbon" policy is quite different from that of last year. The meeting pointed out that "it is necessary to correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak and carbon neutralization. Realizing carbon peak and carbon neutralization is the internal requirement of promoting high-quality development, which should be unswervingly promoted, but it is impossible to accomplish its work in one battle." This statement is a correction of this year's carbon emission reduction policy. On the one hand, we should ensure the stability of energy supply and avoid this year's campaign carbon reduction; On the other hand, we should establish first and then break down, and use assessment methods and policy support to stimulate the development of new energy. In terms of agricultural issues, the top level has attached great importance to food security. "Ensuring the reasonable income of grain farmers" means that on the one hand, we should curb the rapid rise of planting costs caused by the rise of upstream commodity prices, and on the other hand, we may stimulate farmers' planting enthusiasm through Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price adjustment. In terms of capital market, the meeting pointed out that "we should pay close attention to the pilot of comprehensive reform of market-oriented allocation of factors and fully implement the stock issuance registration system". The re mention of "fully implementing the stock issuance registration system" at the central economic work conference means that the process of capital market reform is expected to be accelerated, which is conducive to the long-term development of the securities industry. Capital supervision. The meeting pointed out that "we should correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital." We believe that the meaning of "correct understanding" is not to be extreme. Private capital investment in areas in line with the overall national strategy will be supported.
On the whole, we believe that the industrial policies in this meeting have a lot to do with the "correction" of last year, aiming to prevent some policies from going too far rather than too far and affecting the overall situation of "stability". Therefore, all policies are based on "stability".
Risk tips: 1. High inflation affects the space of monetary policy;
2. The real estate regulation policy is not turned in time, resulting in too fast economic stall.