Basic conclusion
Macro: focus and correction under the leadership of stability
Economic setting: the situation is judged cautiously, facing the triple pressure of “demand contraction”, “supply shock” and “expectation weakening”. Policy setting: “stability is the priority” and “seeking progress in stability”, the force should be appropriately advanced and the supporting attitude should be clear. Fiscal policy: ensure expenditure intensity, speed up expenditure progress, reduce taxes and fees, infrastructure construction, etc. Monetary policy: “flexible and appropriate”, provide a reasonable and abundant liquidity environment for steady growth, promote the improvement of credit environment, and pay attention to the improvement of “quality” rather than the expansion of “quantity”.
Fixed income: rebound is an opportunity. When the interest rate is high, it will be allocated early and benefit early
Next year, the interest rate will probably be low before and high after, but it is not absolute under the “changing situation” of the macro environment. We judge that the central level of interest rate will continue to decline compared with 2021. At present, although the probability of interest rate reduction next year is not high, we believe that there will be uncertain catalytic factors to promote the landing of interest rate reduction boots.
Strategy: in the window period of easing policy, the market will be restrained first and then raised, and the market will enter the second half
First suppress and then raise the market into the second half, and there will be no pessimism about the A-share market in the next quarter. The downward pressure on China’s economy is increasingly apparent. The downward performance has become the consensus expectation of the market and will not become the core factor leading the market. Policy is the core driver of A-Shares in the next stage. Monetary and credit policies reopen the marginal easing window and do not rule out the subsequent reduction of MLF interest rate by the central bank.
Real estate: the biggest change is from “stabilizing the market” to “stabilizing the industry”
It reflects that the focus of the government’s work has shifted from “stabilizing the market” to “stabilizing the industry”. We believe that the central government’s statement has become “stabilizing the industry”, and its core is to maintain the stable development of the sales market without stalling, so that the “lying flat” real estate enterprises can recover their vitality and re participate in the local auction market.
New energy for power equipment: transformation from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emission
The meeting proposed that “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control”, which means that it should be included in the intensity control, so it does not mean that the capacity construction of high-energy consumption industries related to new energy manufacturing can be carried out without restrictions; “Changing from” dual control of energy consumption “to” dual control of carbon emission “is obviously to encourage all end energy fields to use renewable energy, which is a very high intention.
Energy utility: in terms of power generation and peak shaving functions, or give reasonable returns to coal power
We should recognize the role of traditional energy, especially coal power, in the whole power system and energy supply. In the immature period of energy storage, especially long-term energy storage, we still need coal power as the cornerstone of power safety and supply. Therefore, we need to formulate appropriate policies for coal power development.
Food and beverage: policy level or consumption support
In 2022, the mass consumer goods sector is expected to usher in the double improvement of cost and demand side, and the fundamentals are better month on month. On the demand side, the meeting emphasized the expansion of domestic demand, which is expected to give consumption support from the policy level, and mass consumer goods will benefit first. On the supply side, the price of leading enterprises increased intensively at the end of the year.
Medicine: focus on Innovation + high-end manufacturing
In 2022, we will focus on the main line of innovation + high-end manufacturing. The driving factors are industrial transfer, industrial upgrading, the rise of China’s high-end manufacturing and domestic substitution. Covid-19 influenza, covid-19 is still the main theme of 2022h1.
Risk tips: steady growth, overweight, low expectations, rising inflationary pressure and repeated outbreaks
