Important meeting
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. The conference summarized the economic work in 2021, analyzed the current economic situation and deployed the economic work in 2022.
The general tone is warm, the willingness to stabilize growth is strong, and the policy rhythm is clear
In the face of "triple pressure", we have a strong willingness to stabilize growth. It not only clearly requires all localities to actively launch measures to stabilize growth, but also requires appropriate policy development. It is inferred that Q4 is expected to become the bottom of growth stage in 2021, and the growth will rise steadily under the combination of cross cycle adjustment and counter cycle adjustment. The annual growth rate in 2022 is expected to reach 5.5%.
The fiscal policy should maintain its intensity and rhythm. First, "we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure". It is estimated that the actual use scale of special bonds in 2022 is expected to exceed 4 trillion, including the amount of special bonds in 2022 and the part issued but not used in 2021. The second is to "accelerate the progress of expenditure". The meeting clearly put forward that "moderately advanced infrastructure investment" will become an important starting point for steady growth in Q1 in 2022.
Monetary policy reserves space for steady growth, which can be more optimistic. The statement that "the growth rate of money supply and social finance should basically match the economic growth rate and maintain the basic stability of macro leverage ratio" proposed for three consecutive years in 2018, 2019 and 2020 is deleted to reserve sufficient operating space for stable growth next year. It is expected that the growth rate of social finance and M2 will remain stable in 2022, and it is possible to continue to comprehensively reduce reserve requirements and target interest rates.
Significantly boost market risk appetite. In addition to the strong willingness to stabilize growth, the meeting also made clear and detailed explanations on "common prosperity", "capital supervision", "prevention and resolution of major risks" and "double carbon work", corrected the shortcomings in the above work and significantly improved the market risk preference. For example, real estate regulation emphasizes meeting reasonable housing needs, common prosperity emphasizes that we should first expand and do a good job in "making a big cake", there should be resources and extensive cooperation to resolve risks, and "double carbon" work cannot be completed in one battle, which significantly alleviates the market's concerns about the possible radical promotion of some policies.
Pay equal attention to tradition and emerging, and the new year's market will be continuously and comprehensively interpreted, focusing on the three main lines of building materials, financial real estate and green technology
The overall tone of the meeting was warm and strongly boosted short-term risk appetite, and the cross-year market will continue and be fully interpreted. In terms of rhythm, it is recommended to first focus on the market that has begun and is expected to last until at least the first quarter of 2022, and then moderately grasp the market before the subsequent fed interest rate hike.
In terms of structure, it is suggested to pay attention to the three main lines of building materials, financial real estate and green technology. ① The meeting has a clearer attitude towards steady growth and more specific and clear measures, which will effectively deal with the growth pressure. Especially in the first quarter of 2022, the policy reserves in infrastructure and other fields are expected to accelerate the release, and pay attention to the opportunities of building materials. ② Pay attention to science and technology and new energy, such as requiring the solid implementation of science and technology policies, and excluding the new renewable energy and raw material energy from the total energy consumption control. Specifically, it includes clean energy such as water, light and wind, new energy vehicles, new electricity, semiconductors, etc. ③ The real estate regulation has been gradually relaxed and the expectation has changed. The concentrated release of industrial risks is coming to an end, the bottom of the policy is determined, and the improvement of bank asset quality superimposes the low valuation. It is suggested to pay attention to the allocation value of the real estate and banking sectors. In addition, in the context of the strengthening of the stock market and the full implementation of the registration system, the opportunities of securities companies also deserve attention.
Risk statement
There are deviations in policy interpretation.
