Event: the central economic work conference (hereinafter referred to as the "conference") was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10 to summarize the economic work in 2021, analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022.
Core conclusion: be more worried about the economy, highlight the importance of stability, and pay attention to the combination of cross cycle and counter cycle, autonomy, coordination, effectiveness and front-end; Expanding domestic demand, emphasizing manufacturing and infrastructure, not focusing on consumption, and a virtuous circle and healthy development of real estate; 5 major rectifications, first stand and then break, make the common prosperity cake bigger and then divide it, and break the "sports style and one size fits all" of double carbon; In other aspects, it pays attention to digital, science and technology, state-owned enterprise reform, regional coordination, people's livelihood, employment, pension, childbirth and other fields. Specifically, we sort out five main lines and their economic and investment enlightenment.
Main line 1: the state is worried about the economy, the policy is stable, and the economy is expected to maintain a certain growth. The meeting first mentioned that "China's economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation", The re mention of "adhering to economic construction as the center" (previously mentioned years: 1998, 2001, 2005, 2014 and 2018) also continues the expressions of "six stabilities, six guarantees" and "stabilizing the macro-economic market" since the premier's Symposium in November. It has become a consensus of all parties to increase economic concerns. Therefore, the full text highlights the word "stability", including "stability first, seeking progress in stability, stability and effectiveness" And welcoming the 20th National Congress should be the "overall social stability" of economic, social, political and other parties.
Main line 2: the policy layout has the characteristics of stability, autonomy, coordination, effectiveness and front-end, with stable finance and wide currency, and strengthen the cooperation between money and finance.
1. The policy implementation shows: 1 combination + 1 coordination + effective front end: 1 combination: the policy layout pays more attention to the combination of cross cycle and counter cycle, focusing on me. We understand that the "counter cycle" requires the policy to pay more attention to the present, and it is expected that the short-term policy strength will not be constrained by overseas tightening such as the United States. Coordination: fiscal and monetary policies should be coordinated and linked. It is expected that possible means include financial interest discount + special refinancing of the central bank during the epidemic period, currency matching the rhythm of central bank bond issuance, and the same force for risk resolution (central bank financial stability refinancing, local refinancing bonds, etc.). Effective front end: it emphasizes soundness, effectiveness and front-end force, and the implementation and implementation of policies may be faster and better.
2. Fiscal policy: the meeting continued the formulation of the 1206 Politburo meeting, that is, "fiscal policy should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability". It is expected that the deficit rate may be slightly lower, but the real fiscal funds are expected to be a lot. "Ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and carry out infrastructure investment moderately ahead of schedule" and other requirements require a more important and effective fiscal rhythm. In addition, it also proposed "tax reduction and fee reduction" and "resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments". In the follow-up, it will continue to implement the merger of explicit and implicit debt.
3. Monetary policy: the meeting continued the formulation of the 1206 Politburo meeting, that is, "prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate". It is expected that monetary policy will be stable and loose, liquidity will remain reasonably abundant, and support for small and micro enterprises, science and technology, green and other structural tools will become the norm, with more emphasis on small and micro enterprises. After the landing of two standard reduction superimposed structural tools, the LPR adjustment is close to the minimum step, and the interest rate may be reduced again. At this meeting, the words "keep the growth of money supply and social financing scale basically match the economic growth, and keep the macro leverage basically stable" were deleted. It is expected that the demand for stable credit will be stronger, and the macro leverage may rise next year. However, under the central bank's monetary policy framework, social finance will not deviate significantly from nominal GDP.
Main line 3: expand domestic demand, pay attention to technological transformation, specialization, innovation and infrastructure, do not mention consumption, maintain stability in real estate in the short term, and pay attention to "benign and healthy" in the long term.
1. Pay attention to the technological transformation of manufacturing industry, specialization and innovation, and make efforts in infrastructure construction, such as "improving the core competitiveness of manufacturing industry, stimulating the emergence of a large number of" specialization and innovation "enterprises, and appropriately carrying out infrastructure investment in advance".
2. Without mentioning consumption, it is not unimportant. Steady growth is inseparable from consumption. We understand that under the disturbance of the epidemic, the implementation scenarios and means of short-term consumption promotion policies are limited, and we still need to pay attention to consumption policies such as automobiles and household appliances in the future.
3. Real estate continues the general tone of "housing without speculation". It is expected that the short-term policies will continue to correct deviations and maintain stability. Personal loans and development loans are expected to be marginal loose. Under the "meeting reasonable housing needs and implementing policies according to the city", policy adjustments such as purchase and loan restrictions in some cities may also be seen; The medium and long-term real estate development model will focus on "simultaneous rent and purchase and affordable housing construction", which is expected to drive the growth of real estate investment.
Main line 4: 5 major corrections, first stand and then break, correct the source and respond to "misunderstanding".
The meeting mentioned five aspects of rectification, which are "rectifying the source", correcting "Sports" behavior, responding to social concerns and clarifying "misunderstandings". At the beginning of the meeting, it was proposed that "to adjust policies and promote reform, we should grasp the timing and efficiency, adhere to standing first and then breaking down, and fight steadily. We must strengthen overall planning and coordination and adhere to the concept of system", Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the Finance Office of the CPC Central Committee, also pointed out that "we should prevent being eager for success. We should maintain strategic concentration and patience, not short-term long-term goals, fragmented system goals, and not turn a protracted war into a surprise war". In this regard, the meeting pointed out that "we need to correctly understand and grasp" five aspects, including common prosperity, capital, primary product supply, major risks, double carbon, etc. We understand as follows:
1. Efficiency is still important for the development of common prosperity. To divide the cake well, we need to take making the cake bigger as the premise. It reminds us to pay attention to the platform for action for common prosperity to be released at the end of the year. In the promulgation and implementation of relevant policies, we should consider economic growth and efficiency instead of blindly seeking "fairness". It also reminds us to pay attention to the follow-up in solving the problems of income, urban and rural areas Tax adjustment, encouragement of three distribution, Rural Revitalization and regional coordination policies that may be carried out in the process of regional imbalance.
2. To give full play to the positive role of capital, we should also prevent the barbaric growth of capital. Compared with last year's formulation, we should focus on standardization to guidance.
3. The supply of primary products shall be guaranteed and economy shall be paid attention to. Two things were mainly emphasized: 1) saving resources, including saving production resources and green and low-carbon consumption (focusing on new energy vehicles). 2) energy security such as oil and gas and food security.
4. Prevention and resolution of major risks should be accurate and coordinated in many ways. The meeting stressed that "stabilizing the overall situation and accurately dismantling bombs", "compacting the responsibilities of local, financial supervision, industry directors and other parties, compacting the main responsibility of enterprise self-help", and resolving risks should have sufficient resources and extensive cooperation ", It means that the resolution of risks puts more emphasis on accuracy (for example, the accurate demolition of individual behaviors of a real estate company). The resolution methods should be widely coordinated with all resources, including central (finance, currency), local, market-oriented (financial institutions) and enterprise itself (enterprise self-help).
5. Double carbon: instead of "rush to peak" and "sports carbon reduction", state-owned enterprises should take the lead in ensuring supply and price stability, and the development space of new energy will be broader. The meeting pointed out that "to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutralization, we should unswervingly promote it, but it is impossible to complete its work in one battle", It should mean that we can not engage in "rush to peak" (for example, the energy consumption of some provinces and cities increased in the first half of this year), nor can we engage in "sports carbon reduction", such as switching off and limiting power since the third quarter. "The new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control", indicating that the restrictions on the use of high energy consuming materials in the upstream of new energy are relaxed, and there is more room for the development of new energy. "To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable price", indicating that carbon reduction cannot be carried out in a mobile and one size fits all manner, and the limited supply of upstream raw materials will be improved.
Main line 5: other key points that can be paid attention to, such as digital, science and technology, factor marketization, registration system, state-owned enterprise reform, regional coordination, people's livelihood, employment, pension, childbirth, debt evasion, etc.
Economic and investment implications:
1. For economic growth, we maintain our previous judgment. Compared with the potential growth rate of 5.5% and the compound GDP growth rate of about 5% this year, it is expected that next year's GDP 5-5.5% is an acceptable target growth range, which should maintain the bottom line of 5%, and the actual growth rate under the policy force may also reach the upper limit of the range.
2. Learn from history: looking back on the years in which the central economic work conference mentioned "taking economic construction as the center", the economic growth rate increased and decreased in the next year, most of the inventories were in the peak and fall period, most of them lowered reserve requirements and interest rates, the actual deficit ratio increased and decreased, the short-term rise of fixed asset investment, and the effect of infrastructure reverse cycle was not obvious; In terms of asset performance, the implementation of the steady growth policy in the next year stimulated the economic recovery, the stock market turned from decline to rise, and the downward range of interest rate narrowed.
3. The economic and investment password disclosed at this meeting:
Interest rate: a possible further interest rate cut will help to benefit the downward trend of interest rate, but monetary easing will cooperate with the issuance of treasury bonds. The downward trend of interest rate has a bottom. Be vigilant against the disturbance of real estate inflection point to interest rate. Structural impact: monetary easing is good for science and technology and other sectors with low interest rates, and the probability is high in the first half of the year; The enthusiasm and effect of infrastructure development may be more obvious than before, and both new and old infrastructure can be concerned; The manufacturing industry is still the direction of support and is expected to remain stable, focusing on technological transformation, digital transformation, high-end manufacturing, etc; Not mentioning consumption does not mean that consumption is not important, but the rebound range is expected to be limited, and attention is paid to household appliances, automobiles and other stimuli; The reform of distribution system, charity, education, medical care, pension, housing and other basic public services around common prosperity should be the long-term direction; Cooperate with various parties to resolve risks. Enterprises should save themselves. There may be "survival of the fittest" in real estate and other industries, and pay attention to high-quality leaders; Cyclical market weakening; There is more room for new energy.
(historical review and comparison table are attached to the text)
Risk statement
The economic downturn exceeded expectations, and the implementation of policies was less than expected.
