Event: on December 8-10, 2021, the central economic work conference was held to summarize the economic work in 2021 and deploy the economic work in 2022. Core conclusion: it continues the general tone of the Politburo meeting on December 6 (stabilizing the word, making every effort to stabilize growth, etc.), and also adds the expressions that have attracted much attention, such as “no speculation in housing and housing, cross cycle regulation, double carbon and common prosperity”; more importantly, it is a meeting of “emancipating the mind, correcting policy deviations and reshaping consensus” and urging all parties to “work hard” Meetings. In a word, the policy environment in 2022 will be relatively friendly to the economy and the market.
1. The most important and the biggest difference: This is a meeting of “emancipating the mind, correcting policy deviations and reshaping consensus”, Based on the five “to correctly understand and grasp” (common prosperity first), it should help all parties better understand and better implement the central policies. The meeting pointed out that “entering the new development stage, China’s internal and external development environment has undergone profound changes and faces many new major theoretical and practical problems, which need to be correctly understood and grasped” And put forward five “to correctly understand and grasp” in terms of common prosperity, capital, primary product guarantee, risk prevention and double carbon, as follows:
We should correctly understand and grasp the strategic objectives and practical ways to achieve common prosperity, first make the “cake” bigger and better, and then cut it well. The meeting pointed out: to achieve the goal of common prosperity, we should first make the “cake” bigger and better through the common struggle of the people of the whole country, and then cut and divide the “cake” through reasonable institutional arrangements; Continue to emphasize that “this is a long-term historical process; we should adhere to doing our best and acting according to our ability”.
To correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital, the first summary sets up “traffic lights” for capital. The meeting pointed out: give play to the positive role of capital and control the negative role of capital; We should set up “traffic lights” for capital to prevent the savage growth of capital (previously “prevent the disorderly expansion of capital”); we should support and guide the standardized and healthy development of capital, and unswervingly encourage, support and guide the development of non-public economy (which means being friendly to private enterprises).
We should correctly understand and grasp the supply guarantee of primary products, pay equal attention to conservation and safety, and pay attention to seed safety and energy security: on the one hand, “adhere to the priority of conservation and implement the comprehensive conservation strategy; in the field of consumption, strengthen the national awareness of conservation and advocate a simple, moderate, green and low-carbon lifestyle”; On the other hand, “we should enhance China’s resource production guarantee capacity, accelerate the development and application of advanced exploitation technologies for oil and gas and other resources; deeply implement the action to revitalize the seed industry, and the Chinese people’s rice bowl should be firmly in their own hands at any time”, which highlights the safety thinking and bottom line thinking, and we can pay attention to seed safety and energy security.
We should correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of major risks, require “compaction of the main responsibility of enterprise self-help”, and pay attention to HD and local hidden debt risks. The meeting pointed out that we should continue to do a good job in risk disposal in accordance with the principles of stabilizing the overall situation, overall coordination, classified policy implementation and accurate bomb dismantlement, and consolidate the responsibilities of local, financial supervision, industry directors and other parties, In addition, the meeting pointed out that “we should strictly enforce financial discipline and resolutely curb the new implicit debt of local governments”, indicating that we will still resolve the risk of local debt and strictly control the new implicit debt in 2022.
To correctly understand and grasp the carbon peak carbon neutralization, the follow-up double carbon should not be “sports and one size fits all”. The meeting pointed out: double carbon, it is impossible to complete its work in one service; The gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy; Scientific assessment should be carried out to ensure that the new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption are not included in the total energy consumption control, so as to prevent simple layer by layer decomposition; To ensure energy supply, large enterprises, especially state-owned enterprises, should take the lead in ensuring supply and stable prices. Therefore, the follow-up double carbon should avoid “sports and one size fits all” as much as possible, and “stand first and then break” also means that traditional energy will not exit too soon.
2. The second very important point: “all regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy” and “move forward and ahead”, pointing out that local governments should “work hard” in 2022, especially the slow development of local finance this year. “All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro-economy, and all parties should actively launch policies conducive to economic stability, and the policy force should be appropriately advanced”, and it is required to “carry out infrastructure investment moderately in advance”. Most intuitively, it is expected that the annual special debt limit will be invented in advance within the year, and the local debt will probably be advanced next year.
3. The specific requirements of the meeting on the economic situation, policy tone and key work are as follows:
1) Worried about the economy, he first mentioned the “triple pressure”, but stressed “facing difficulties and strengthening confidence”. The meeting first mentioned that “we must see that China’s economic development faces triple pressures of demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation”. Among them, demand contraction should refer to consumption, real estate and infrastructure, supply shock should be power and production restriction, global supply chain friction, etc., resulting in high upstream prices, and expected weakening should refer to the deterioration of enterprise confidence and the reduction of economic growth expectations by all parties, Combined with the prime minister’s statement since November that “there are new downward pressures on the economy; new challenges are intertwined and superimposed and exceed expectations”, and the central bank’s third quarter monetary policy report puts forward that “it is more difficult to maintain the stable operation of the economy”, it shows that the current downward pressure on the economy is a consensus of all parties.
2) The 20th National Congress is the most important macro environment in 2022. It is re mentioned that “adhering to economic construction as the center”, and stable growth and employment are the hard requirements. The meeting pointed out that “the 20th CPC National Congress will be held next year, which is a major event in the political life of the party and the country. We should maintain a stable and healthy economic environment, a peaceful social environment for the country and the people, and a clean and positive political environment”; Continue to put forward “strive to stabilize the macro-economic market and keep the economy running within a reasonable range”, Revisiting the “focus on economic construction” (the last meeting of the Politburo on July 30, 2015) indicates that steady growth is still a hard requirement. Maintain the annual view: the GDP growth target in 2022 may be set at about 5.5% (the agreed target should be 5-5.5%, and the bottom line target should be more than 5%). In addition, there are 8 references to employment, which should be paid attention to: “The goal of common prosperity should strengthen the priority orientation of employment in promoting high-quality development and improve the employment driving force of economic growth”.
3) General policy tone: in addition to being stable, the new “grasp the time and efficiency, establish first and then break, and organically combine cross cycle and counter cycle”. The 12.6 Politburo meeting continued the saying of “stability first, seeking progress while stability; six stabilities and six guarantees”, but added many references, Including: “no matter how the international situation changes, we should unswervingly do our own things (which has appeared many times in previous meetings)”; “we should grasp the timing effect in adjusting policies and promoting reform (mentioned at the central economic work conference last year), adhere to standing first and then breaking (mentioned at the 730 Politburo meeting), and fight steadily”; we also added this year’s high-frequency word “increase cross cycle regulation” And put forward that “cross cycle and counter cycle macro-control policies should be organically combined”.
4) The main task has changed: finance and currency should be linked; There are no detailed rules for expanding domestic demand, deleting the promotion of consumption and expanding investment; In addition, there is no speculation about housing and housing, and the implementation of policies due to the city is mentioned again
Broad monetary and fiscal expectations. After the RRR reduction, there may be interest rate reduction. The combination of Finance and currency can be expected. On the financial side, it continued to put forward that “active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability”, and put forward that “we should ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure and accelerate the progress of expenditure; implement the new tax reduction and fee reduction policy”, which continued to suggest that the deficit ratio level and special debt scale in 2022 may be roughly the same as this year; On the monetary side, he continued to point out that “prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity”. He continued to suggest that monetary policy will be stable and loose, and there may be interest rate cuts after the RRR reduction; It is worth noting that the meeting added “fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, and cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined”, pointing to the combination of Finance and currency. For example, monetary policy should cooperate with the multiple issuance of local bonds.
Surprisingly, the specific measures to expand domestic demand were not mentioned, and the promotion of consumption was deleted, but investment in expansion will be strengthened; We suggest that infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment may exceed expectations in 2022. 12.6 the Politburo meeting proposed “implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development”. The meeting did not make detailed deployment, and deleted “promote the sustained recovery of consumption and actively expand effective investment”, It should be pointed out that there may not be many effective ways to promote consumption (the national development and Reform Commission has “had to” re mention household appliances and cars to the countryside a few days ago). However, “moderately advance infrastructure investment”, plus the local government should “work hard” next year, pointing to the possible development of infrastructure; “improve the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry (mentioned in the 14th five year plan) and start a number of industrial infrastructure reconstruction projects” , it indicates that manufacturing investment in 2022 should also be the driving direction.
In addition to “no speculation in housing and housing” and “implementation of policies due to the city”, it continues to prompt that further loosening of real estate can be expected and focus on affordable housing. 12.6 the Politburo meeting did not mention “housing is not fried”. We pointed out that it should not be read too much. This meeting also added it as scheduled. In addition, the meeting re mentioned the “implementation of policies due to the city” (not mentioned in the two sessions of this year and the Three Political Bureau meetings on 4.30 / 7.30 / 12.6), pointing to the possibility of further loosening of the real estate; 12.6 the Political Bureau meeting proposed “promoting the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry”, and this time the order was changed to “virtuous cycle and healthy development”, which should mean that the issuance of mortgage loans and development loans is expected to be accelerated.
Other concerns: compared with the meeting of the Political Bureau in December 6, the implementation of science and technology policies has been changed from accelerated to solid, and the “realization of a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance” has been deleted; The reform policy added “fully implement the stock issuance registration system and complete the three-year action task of state-owned enterprise reform”; Micro policies have increased; Structural policies require the emergence of a large number of “specialized and new” enterprises; Micro policy added “effective governance of malicious arrears and debt evasion”. Attached: a table to understand the changes and changes of this meeting: Central Economic Work Conference (2021 / 2020) and Political Bureau meeting (2021.12.6 / 7.30)
Risk tips: the evolution of epidemic situation, policy trend and changes in external environment exceed expectations
