1. The economic work conference proposed to increase support for small and micro enterprises. How to solve this problem?
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The meeting called for "guiding financial institutions to increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development"; "Increase financing support for the real economy and promote the financing increment, expansion and price reduction of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises." The above requirements include both aggregate objectives (such as strengthening support for the real economy) and structural tasks (especially strengthening support for small and micro enterprises). We believe that using structural monetary policy tools to solve structural problems is the best.
Affected by the epidemic situation, rising raw material prices and other factors, the profit growth rate of small and micro enterprises is significantly lower than that of large enterprises, and the profit imbalance among different types of enterprises is more prominent. Therefore, there is an urgent need for accurate monetary policy to further strengthen financial support for small, medium-sized and micro enterprises.
Small, medium and micro enterprises and large enterprises are heterogeneous subjects, and there is a dislocation between aggregate monetary policy and heterogeneous subjects. On the one hand, the current capital situation of small, medium-sized and micro enterprises has deteriorated, so it is urgent to supplement external funds. On the other hand, because of the deterioration of its capital situation and the increase of credit risk, the willingness of banks to supply funds has also decreased, further resulting in the imbalance between capital supply and demand.
The aggregate policy treats small, medium-sized and micro enterprises and large state-owned enterprises without discrimination Financing platform is the subject with implicit government credit endorsement (we collectively refer to "advantageous enterprises"). Obviously, at this time, banks are more willing to provide funds to "advantageous enterprises". In this case, funds are used by "advantageous enterprises" However, small, medium-sized and micro enterprises will still face the problem of difficult and expensive financing. At this time, if structural instruments are used to guide financial institutions to supply funds to small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, the policy effect will be more accurate and obvious.
We also note that it seems that sometimes monetary policy will face a "dilemma": on the one hand, the downward pressure on economic growth is increasing, and monetary policy needs to strengthen counter cyclical regulation; On the other hand, a substantial easing of monetary policy will amplify financial risks, solidify structural distortions and push up macro leverage. Obviously, the traditional aggregate monetary policy is not easy to coordinate the relationship between the above two aspects.
If an "appropriate amount" of liquidity is provided through aggregate instruments, the funds of the financial system will first be obtained by "advantageous departments" such as large state-owned enterprises and financing platforms. At this time, it is not easy for "weak links" such as small, medium and micro enterprises to obtain sufficient financial support. If we improve the availability of funds in "weak links" by increasing the supply of funds, we can not achieve the appropriate tightness of monetary policy.
In contrast, structural tools have less impact on the total amount of liquidity. It is easier to control liquidity in a reasonable and sufficient state, realize accurate drip irrigation of liquidity, and improve the pertinence and effectiveness of policies. Therefore, it is easier to avoid the above problems such as curing structural distortion and pushing up macro leverage.
2. Risk tips
Irrational expectations lead to rapid market fluctuations.
