On the basis of the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee at the end of the year, the central economic work conference further refined the economic work deployment for next year. The general tone on key issues such as steady growth will not change. Therefore, our focus mainly falls on: 1) how clear are the issues not mentioned in the Political Bureau meeting; 2) What are the details of the problems mentioned. The conclusions are as follows:
Focus 1: is the growth target for next year 5.0% or more—— Conclusion: according to the expectation of more than 5% in the first half of the year, about 5% or slightly higher in the whole year. Don't cling to 5.5%
Focus 2: will steady growth next year depend on new infrastructure or old infrastructure—— Conclusion: the increment of new infrastructure is higher, and the stock of old infrastructure is ahead
Focus 3: will interest rates be cut next year—— Conclusion: the probability of comprehensive interest rate reduction in the first half of the year is small, and targeted interest rate reduction is the main
Focus 4: how to implement the consumption promotion policy—— Conclusion: no direct discussion, lower than expected
Focus 5: how to correct the deviation of dual carbon and dual control of energy consumption—— Conclusion: setting up first and then breaking down is conducive to reducing pollution and carbon in the new energy industry
Risk tip: the downward pressure on the economy is higher than expected; The strength of steady growth policy is lower than expected; The epidemic situation exceeded expectations
