Event: the central economic work conference closed in Beijing on the 10th. The official disclosed the news of the conference of nearly 5000 words. The working conference comprehensively studied and judged the situation, put forward the current pressure, and pointed out that it should be stable in the future; We have made arrangements to stabilize the economy, appropriately advance policy efforts, and appropriately advance infrastructure investment, especially to ensure employment, people's livelihood and market players; It has responded to the concerns of the people and the concerns of the people on the real estate market, stock market, childbirth, pension and other issues; This paper lists five new major theoretical and practical problems facing China, namely, how to achieve common prosperity, how to supervise various capital, how to protect primary products, how to resolve major risks, and how to achieve the double carbon goal.
In the future, the disturbance of commodity supply side will gradually decrease, and new energy investment is an important part of commodity demand increment
The meeting proposed that "new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control", which will help to stimulate the use and investment of new energy. In the future, new energy investment will be an important factor to stimulate commodity demand. At the same time, the meeting stressed that "it is impossible to accomplish the success of double carbon" and "the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy". On the 11th, the deputy director in charge of daily work of the office of the central financial and economic Commission stated that some places engage in "carbon charging" and some engage in sports "carbon reduction", which do not meet the requirements of the Party Central Committee and realize "double carbon", Strategically, we should strive for progress while maintaining stability. We expect that from now to the first quarter of next year, the supply side policy of domestic demand industrial products may be relatively mild, the supply of thermal coal and the production of industrial products will gradually recover, and the disturbance on the supply side is expected to gradually reduce.
Real estate continues to adhere to the principle of "housing without speculation", and the downward inertia of real estate investment will still drag down domestic demand commodities
The principle of "no speculation in housing" has been mentioned again. Since this year, the real estate industry has faced certain credit risks. The government has more of a "trust rather than action" attitude in relaxing the financing of real estate enterprises, and it is likely to maintain this attitude in the future. It is expected that it will be difficult to make great improvements in real estate next year, but we are also concerned that there have been relatively positive statements in real estate, That is to promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the virtuous cycle of the real estate industry due to urban policies, which will be conducive to the stable operation of the real estate industry.
Although there is a high probability that the policy has appeared at the end of November, the inertial decline of China's investment items will still drag down the demand for domestic demand commodities in the first quarter. Recently, the real estate financing environment has improved. The relevant policies are intended to maintain the stability of the real estate, mainly to prevent the real estate from stalling. From September to October this year, the land acquisition rate is huge. It is expected that the real estate construction will be relatively weak from the end of 2021 to the first quarter of 2022, and the demand for short-term negative domestic demand industrial products (black building materials, traditional nonferrous metals, coal, chemical industry, etc.) will focus on the land acquisition in December this year and the first half of 2022.
Infrastructure development will underpin the demand side of domestic demand industrial products next year
The central economic work conference pointed out that we should continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. Considering the current great downward pressure on the economy, the fiscal stimulus may be moderately expanded in the first half of next year to hedge the downward trend of the economy. According to our calculation, more than 3.5 trillion yuan of local government special bonds may be added next year. Considering that some of the special bonds have been issued but not used this year, and there is the possibility of putting new quotas in advance in the first quarter of next year, infrastructure investment may be launched in advance at the beginning of next year, which will partially buffer the slope and depth of the downward demand for domestic industrial products.
Rhythm deduction of commodities next year: commodities will still be under pressure in the first quarter, and the overall commodities are expected to stabilize and rebound in the second quarter, and may gradually strengthen in the second half of the year
In the first quarter of 2022, the commodity index in the inner market will fluctuate downward, the real debt cycle model will lead the commodity index for three quarters, and the real debt cycle will begin to decline at the end of the third quarter of this year, which indicates that the commodity index is expected to stabilize and rebound in the second quarter of next year; The monetary liquidity transmission model leads the commodity index for half a year. It is expected that the commodity index will stabilize and rebound in the second quarter of next year; The credit pulse model also shows that after the end of the first quarter, the commodity index is expected to hit the bottom area and rebound. At the policy level, high-level officials have frequently expressed their positions on various occasions recently, such as "wide credit", "six stabilities and six guarantees", "countercyclical" and "active finance". There are clear signs of warming, which will pave the way for the victory of the 20th National Congress next autumn. We expect that the first half of the year will gradually enter a new cycle of moderately small leverage, wide finance, wide currency and wide credit, supporting the further shock and strength of the commodity index in the second half of the year.
Rhythm deduction of stock index next year: loose policy, credit stabilization can be expected, and equity assets usher in a good opportunity for stage layout
Recently, the central bank has a strong intention to broaden money and stabilize credit, and has carried out comprehensive reserve requirement reduction and targeted interest rate reduction. The central economic work conference stressed that fiscal policy and monetary policy should be coordinated and linked, cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined, and the first quarter or the intensive period of loose policy combination. In the face of the downward pressure on the economy, the effect of a series of recent measures is obvious. China's credit has stabilized. The newly announced year-on-year growth rate of social finance in November was 10.1%, up from last month; M2 grew by 8.5% year-on-year, and is currently fluctuating at the bottom. The medium and long-term loans of residents and enterprises increased significantly in November.
At present, the downward speed of China's credit pulse is slowing down, and the bottom signal is becoming more and more clear. In the first half of next year, the two engines of real estate and export trade are facing downward pressure. At that time, the investment clock may fall from stagflation to weak recession quadrant. We expect that monetary policy will be easy to loosen but difficult to tighten in the first half of next year, which has strong support for equity assets. Therefore, from now to the first quarter of next year, we look at the three major stock index futures in an all-round way. Although the CSI 500 index lost significantly in early December, we believe that there is still a chance to lead the rise of the CSI 500 index in the later period. In the first half of the year, the allocation focus is mainly on the CSI 500 and CSI 300 index, and in the second half of the year, the allocation focus is mainly on the SSE 50 index. We believe that the probability of A-Shares in the first half of the year is in the macro situation of "weak recession + credit stabilization", China's interest rate is expected to remain low, and the low interest rate is more attractive to the growth style CSI 500 index. In the second half of the year, the probability of A-Shares is in the macro situation of "weak economic recovery + improvement and recovery of credit margin". The interest rate may stabilize and recover, and the performance of SSE 50 index may be slightly stronger. Its weighted enterprises benefit from the leading effect, and the certainty of profit improvement is stronger.
