The central economic work conference released the expectation of steady growth. On December 10, the communique of the central economic work conference was released. We believe that the main points that need to be paid attention to are as follows: first, "stability" is the key word of the central economic work conference. Next year's economic work should "take the lead in stability and seek progress in stability". It is required to improve the foresight, pertinence and effectiveness of macro-control. 2、 "Moderately advanced infrastructure investment" is expected to accelerate infrastructure investment in the first half of the year due to the financial backward move in 2021 and the financial forward move in 2022. 3、 Adhering to the principle of "no speculation in housing", the real estate industry has faced certain credit risks since this year. The government has more "trust but not lift" attitude in relaxing the financing of real estate enterprises. It is expected that the real estate will be difficult to improve greatly next year. 4、 "New renewable energy and raw material energy consumption will not be included in the total energy consumption control". It is helpful to stimulate the use and investment of new energy. The meeting stressed that double carbon "cannot accomplish its work in one battle", "the gradual withdrawal of traditional energy should be based on the safe and reliable substitution of new energy". In the future, new energy investment will be an important factor to stimulate commodity demand, and the disturbance on the supply side is expected to be gradually reduced. At present, the expectation of steady growth is the most obvious boost to China's stock index.
In terms of Chinese commodities, the data on bond issuance and road transportation of high-frequency real estate enterprises we tracked pointed out that the economy was still not optimistic in December. In addition, the RMB loan balance of financial institutions and the stock of social financing scale increased by 11.7% and 10.1% respectively in November, without significant growth, indicating that China's credit easing expectation still needs to be implemented. Subsequently, with the gradual realization of the steady growth expectation, we should be vigilant against the risk of increasing the fluctuation of domestic demand industrial products under the steady growth expectation and the realistic game of pressure.
Overseas, the impact of O variant is basically exhausted. The experimental data of some pharmaceutical companies show that the current vaccine is still effective for O variant, and the lethal rate of this variant is lower than Delta, showing more mild and mild symptoms. In addition, the US consumer price index CPI in November rose 6.8% year-on-year, the highest in 39 years since June 1982. However, from the perspective of market performance, the US bond interest rate peaked and fell after the news was released, the interest rate increase probability implied by interest rate futures next year also decreased, and US stocks also rose further. We believe that this performance is related to the market expectation that the subsequent inflation will peak and fall. This week, we need to pay attention to the interest rate resolutions of the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank on December 16, focusing on whether the tightening pace of the two countries is accelerated.
Strategy (order of strength): the three major stock indexes (IH / if / IC) are bargain hunting and multi matching; commodities are neutral, of which Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) can still bargain hunting and multi matching; treasury bonds are neutral;
Risk point: geopolitical risk; Global epidemic risk; China curbs commodity overheating; The game risk between China and the United States is rising; The situation in the Taiwan Strait
