1、 Last week’s economic and market review:
Last week, the RMB rose first and then fell; Global stock markets generally rose as concerns about the mutant virus weakened. China’s RRR cut pushed bond yields down slightly, while the Fed’s tightening monetary expectations pushed bond yields up significantly.
China’s top five commodities rose or fell: fuel oil 6.35%, iron ore 4.82%, crude oil 4.31% and lpg3 22%、TA3. 16%； Soda ash – 11.31%, jujube – 9.90%, glass – 8.56%, dynamic coal – 7.89%, stainless steel – 5.19%
The top five (100 million yuan) of precipitation capital inflow and outflow: Huyin 6.26, iron ore 3.39, HuJiao 2.82, apple 2.61 and Liandou 1.24; Thread -5.29, Shanghai copper -5.09, Shanghai nickel -4.77, palm -4.20, hot coil -4.04
Inflow and outflow of precipitation funds from the sector (RMB 100 million): precious metals 6.62, nonferrous metals 1.80, energy and chemical industry -2.61, black building materials -6.51, Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) – 7.32
2、 This week focuses on:
The central economic work conference was held in Beijing from December 8 to 10. We suggest two main points.
First, next year’s macro policy tends to steady growth, the intensity of fiscal expansion will be increased, and the monetary policy is generally neutral and loose. In terms of rhythm, the policy force should be appropriately advanced. The central government describes the current economic situation with “triple pressure”. Therefore, next year’s macro policy will favor steady growth. The central government stressed the need to “actively launch policies conducive to economic stability and appropriately advance the policy force”, ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, implement the new policy of tax reduction and fee reduction, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. In terms of monetary policy, we will increase support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development.
Second, in terms of energy policy, we will promote adequate power supply next year, adhere to the principle of establishing first and then breaking, and gradually change from “dual control of energy consumption” to “dual control of carbon emission”. The central economic work conference expressed the need to “strengthen the regulation of coal, electricity, oil and gas transportation and promote adequate power supply”; Stand first and then break. A relatively new formulation is to create conditions to realize the transformation from “double control” of energy consumption to “double control” of total carbon emission and intensity as soon as possible. This is because energy consumption is not equal to carbon emissions. The central government proposed that “new renewable energy and raw material energy consumption should not be included in the total energy consumption control”, which is conducive to encouraging the development of clean energy, lifting the restrictions on the development of coal chemical industry and petrochemical industry, and reducing the constraints of “dual control of energy consumption” on economic development.
Risk tip: transmission of Omicron mutant virus
