event:
From December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held in Beijing. The chairman made an important speech at the meeting.
Key investment points:
Outstanding achievements and challenges remain
The meeting fully affirmed the achievements made this year and also put forward the current challenges, mainly as follows: "China's economic development faces the triple pressure of shrinking demand, supply shock and weakening expectation". "The external environment is becoming more complex, severe and uncertain."
In 2022, from recovery to normalization or the general trend. China's economy is facing the double impact of supply and demand, and the employment market is relatively depressed; At present, the global economy has not recovered to the pre epidemic level, showing weakening recovery momentum, differentiation of recovery among countries and the risk of monetary policy adjustment in major developed countries. In this context, the urgency of short-term steady growth has further increased. Focusing on the medium and long term, high-quality development driven by innovation is the key to breaking the situation.
Both short-term steady growth and long-term high-quality development
Under the downward pressure of the economy, the urgency of "six stabilities" and "six guarantees" has increased. In the short term, we will focus on steady growth through fiscal and monetary policies.
Focusing on the medium and long term, high-quality development driven by innovation is the key to breaking the situation. From the content of the report, high-quality development is reflected in the following aspects: Micro policies continue to stimulate the vitality of market players; Structural policies focus on unblocking the national economic cycle; Solid implementation of science and technology policies; The reform and opening-up policy activates the driving force of development; Regional policies enhance the balance and coordination of development; Social policies hold fast to the bottom line of people's livelihood.
Stand first and then break, which more reflects the respect for the objective law
In terms of route and method, the report shows that we should establish first and then break, and pay more attention to objective laws. Correctly understand and grasp the strategic objectives and practical ways to achieve common prosperity; Correctly understand and grasp the characteristics and behavior laws of capital; Correctly understand and grasp the supply guarantee of primary products; Correctly understand and grasp the prevention and resolution of major risks; Correctly understand and grasp carbon peak and carbon neutralization.
Investment advice
According to the contents of the report, we suggest focusing on the following main lines: first, the main lines of science and technology and growth, such as low-carbon economy such as new infrastructure, specialization and new energy, digitization, intellectual property rights and other growth opportunities; Second, industrial chain security, such as oil service, agricultural machinery, seed industry, etc; Third, domestic demand related industries under steady growth, such as automobiles and household appliances; Fourth, the main line of reform, such as the reform of state-owned enterprises, capital market reform and the reform of scientific research institutes in the national defense and military industry.
Risk statement
The epidemic situation is repeated, and the economic recovery is less than expected.
