Standing at the intersection of two "centuries", I am full of hope and expectation. How to construct the macro picture in 2022? We have repeatedly deduced that it can be refined in 10 words: (global) scene repair year, (China) looking for a "new steady state". The third round of economy under the "kinetic energy switch" has stepped down, the stock market structure has deepened and the foundation of debt bulls has been solid.
1、 "Stagflation" or "recession"? The "pseudo proposition" is widely discussed, ignoring the decline of the analytical power of the traditional framework
Whether the economy is in the stage of "stagflation" or "recession" is a hot topic in the early stage; Such views have misunderstandings about the traditional cycle framework and the current economic situation. In the traditional cycle, the demand driven economy shows obvious cyclical fluctuations. As prices generally lag behind demand by about two quarters, when the economic and policy cycle changes, growth and prices will show periodic alternation, forming a cycle of "recovery overheating stagflation recession" and other economic states. Since the transformation, the economy has shifted from demand driven to supply driven, and the analytical power of the traditional framework has decreased significantly. Looking at the economy from a different perspective, we are now at the stage of transformation, and the third round of economy is going down the steps; The three steps down reflect the kinetic energy switching in the structural transformation. Since entering the transformation stage, China's economy has experienced three rounds of downward steps: from 2011 to 2015, the investment growth trend of traditional high energy consuming industries moved downward, dragging down the rapid shift of the economy; From 2018 to 2019, under the "risk prevention" policy, local investment behavior has significantly stepped down; The real estate regulation policies since the second half of 2020 have formed substantial constraints on the second traditional engine, and the economic effects will accelerate in the second half of 2021.
2、 A new round of economic shift, the process of looking for a "new steady state" and mapping the acceleration of "kinetic energy conversion"
The process of policy balancing between long-term and short-term objectives is also the process of looking for a "new steady state". Micro enterprises such as real estate enterprises, financial institutions and markets also need to experience and gradually adapt to the "new steady state". As the economy goes down, the underlying logic is still the "kinetic energy switching" in the process of transformation; The periodic downward concerns of the economy will not change the direction of accelerating the kinetic energy switching of policies. In this process, the economy has the pressure of periodic overshoot, and then returns to the desirable range under the "new steady state". In 2022, it is not recommended to expect too much from the underpinning policy and be too pessimistic about the economy. In the process of looking for "new steady state", the "steady growth" mainly focuses on or switches. In the process of changing from traditional engine to new kinetic energy, some investment opportunities are bred. In the process of accelerating the "kinetic energy switching", the role of traditional engines such as real estate infrastructure as tools for stabilizing growth has weakened, mainly focusing on or appearing in the following chains: 1. Accelerating the promotion or early start of major infrastructure projects during the 14th Five Year Plan period; 2. Under the background of "double circulation", strengthen the breakthrough projects of relevant industries; 3. The policy of "promoting consumption" under common prosperity will narrow the gap between the rich and the poor and promote consumption.
3、 In the year of seeking a "new steady state", the "asset shortage" continued, the foundation of the debt bull was solid, and the stock market structure deepened
From now to 2022, the macro situation and credit environment are similar to that from the end of 2018 to 2019, and the monetary liquidity environment is similar to that from 2015 to 2016. Accelerating the "kinetic energy switching" is the ultimate goal of the policy, "steady growth" serves "structural adjustment" and "promoting transformation"; Limited by the traditional engine, it is not easy for the credit environment to turn loose. The downward pressure on the economy, debt risk exposure and implicit debt resolution all need the "care" of the liquidity environment; With the increasingly mature regulation of the interest rate corridor, the short-term interest rate may continue to remain at a low level and fluctuate low.
The situation of "asset shortage" will continue, looking for opportunities for "certainty"; The foundation of the debt bull was solid and the stock market structure deepened. In the bond market, the foundation of short-term bull market is firm and unshakable; Observe again around the first quarter of 2022, focusing on possible deduction paths such as China's policy environment and overseas liquidity environment. The stock market structure is deepened, and the macro main logic may include the possible correction of some policies in traditional fields, the switching of cross cycle policy force points under the "new steady state", and the improvement of the volume and price of some industries under the "scene repair" after the epidemic.
Risk tips: global epidemic, overseas inflation, China's debt risk exposure, etc
