Summary of this week and configuration suggestions for next week
News of the mutant strain affected the market, and US inflation hit a 40 year high. Data from a large Omicron disease center in South Africa this week showed that symptoms caused by Omicron were "mild" but more infectious than those caused by delta. In addition, a laboratory study in South Africa showed that the effectiveness of two doses of Pfizer covid-19 vaccine in preventing symptomatic infection of Omicron was only 22.5%, but severe infection could still be prevented. The relevant news eased the market's concerns about the sharp economic slowdown, and risk appetite rebounded. In terms of economic data, job vacancies in jolts in the United States recorded 11.033 million in October, exceeding market expectations and previous values, reaching a position close to the highest level in history. However, the number of independent separations decreased by 4.7% month on month, indicating that the turnover tide showed signs of easing. In addition, the US CPI in November announced on Friday rose 0.8% month on month, in line with market expectations; The year-on-year increase further climbed to 6.8%, the highest level since June 1982. The sharp rise in inflation in that month was mainly affected by the rise in food and energy prices. Among them, energy prices rose 3.5% month on month and 33.3% year-on-year; Food prices rose 0.7% month on month and 6.1% year-on-year. U.S. President Joe Biden said that although the United States experienced the fastest inflation in nearly 40 years in November, the price rise is slowing down, especially gasoline and cars.
With more news about the mutant strain Omicron released this week, the market risk aversion has eased, and the three major U.S. stock indexes rebounded and rose this week. In the foreign exchange market, the news of the central bank's RRR reduction and the recovery of risk appetite promoted the strength of commodity currencies, and the Australian dollar rebounded from the bottom against the US dollar, rising 2.46% to 0.7171 this week. Safe haven currencies such as the yen and the Swiss Franc were under pressure. The dollar index remained volatile, falling 0.13% this week, focusing on the Fed's policy meeting next week. It is expected that the Fed will announce accelerated weight reduction. In terms of commodities, the trend of international gold prices this week was dominated by sideways shocks, and Comex gold futures almost closed flat, down 0.04% this week. The panic caused by Omicron has eased. This week, the international oil price rose across the board. The January 2022 contract of us oil rose 8.6% to US $71.96/barrel. The oil distribution contract in February 2022 rose 7.84% to US $75.33/barrel.
Pork demand has warmed up seasonally, and the transmission pressure of raw material cost is large. Affected by the tight global energy supply and other factors, international crude oil prices continued to rise, pushing up the prices of China's industrial products. At the same time, due to the greater efforts of the government in pork collection and storage, and the seasonal recovery of pork consumption demand, it has formed a strong support for the rise of pig prices, which has turned from decline to rise, promoting the rise of inflation. At the same time, the effect of "ensuring supply and stabilizing price" is obvious and is still being implemented. Under the joint action of multiple policies and base effect, the PPI probability has entered the downward range, but it is unlikely to go down significantly. In terms of foreign trade, exports maintained a high boom, mainly driven by mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products. Under the influence of the weakening base effect and the continuous rise of raw material prices, the year-on-year growth rate of imports increased significantly. In the context of a new round of repeated outbreaks, the increase in overseas demand has boosted China's exports, while commodity prices continue to rise or continue to affect the import amount to maintain a high level.
This week, the central bank recovered 180 billion yuan in the open market. Financial data show that this round of credit easing process has started slowly, and the current economic downward pressure is more obvious. The latter is highlighted in the downturn of medium and long-term corporate loans, the contraction of off balance sheet bill financing, and the continued low growth rate of M1. This means that the central bank's comprehensive RRR reduction in December is highly targeted, indicating that the regulators have paid full attention to the current operation of the real economy, especially the increasing operating difficulties of small, medium and micro enterprises.. In the capital market, the main market indexes closed up this week, the Shanghai index and Shenzhen composite index closed up sharply on the weekly line, and the gem index closed down sharply dragged down by the science and technology sector on Monday, pulling down the weekly upward range.
