research conclusion
Event: from December 8 to 10, the central economic work conference was held to analyze the current economic situation and deploy the economic work in 2022.
The meeting focused on “stabilizing the overall macroeconomic situation” and strengthened the political responsibility of all localities and departments for steady growth, including “adhering to economic construction as the center is the requirement of the party’s basic line, and the whole party should concentrate on its implementation”, “this is a major event in the political life of the party and the state, and we should maintain a stable and healthy economic environment” “All regions and departments should shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing the macro economy”, which is due to the approaching of the 20th National Congress. At the same time, we believe that consolidating the responsibilities of all regions and departments is also the key to the effectiveness of policies next year.
Compared with last year, there was no policy increment with contraction effect in this year’s meeting. More attention was paid to the smoothness and implementation of the current policy system, and the framework was more perfect and high, For example: (1) last year, “solving the prominent housing problems in big cities” was listed separately, and this year, “promoting the virtuous circle and healthy development of the real estate industry through urban policies” was listed in “structural policies should strive to smooth the national economic cycle”, without mentioning the real estate tax; (2) last year, “strengthening anti-monopoly and preventing the disorderly expansion of capital” was listed separately, and this year will “Strengthen anti-monopoly and anti unfair competition, and ensure fair competition with fair supervision” is included in “micro policies should continue to stimulate the vitality of market subjects”. However, it is worth noting that “strengthening the effective supervision of capital according to law and preventing the barbaric growth of capital” appeared at this meeting, which means that the supervision of capital is not over, but may be further diversified in form.
From the perspective of this meeting, under the background of maintaining stability and seeking progress while maintaining stability, macroeconomic policies may focus on the following:
(1) Compared with the previous emphasis on cross cyclical regulation (such as the Politburo meeting in July), “cross cyclical and counter cyclical macro-control policies should be organically combined” means that the proportion of counter cyclical regulation, that is, making an immediate response to the current economic pressure, will increase;
(2) Emphasize the attribute of “housing” in “housing is not fried”. While promoting the construction of indemnificatory housing, it is required to “better meet the reasonable housing needs of property buyers”;
(3) It is impossible for “double carbon” to accomplish its work in one battle. Therefore, on the one hand, it is necessary to conduct scientific assessment. The practice of not bringing new renewable energy and raw material energy into the total energy consumption control will reduce the burden for various industries and regions and ease the supply constraints. On the other hand, it is not necessary to blindly pursue “new” over “old” Instead, based on the basic national conditions dominated by coal, promote the optimal combination of coal and new energy. On December 11, Han Wenxiu, deputy director of the office of the central financial and Economic Commission, further interpreted the central economic work conference and mentioned that neither carbon charging nor sports carbon reduction is also a confirmation.
(4) Investment in infrastructure should be carried out ahead of schedule. Since Liu he mentioned “moderately ahead” in his speeches and articles on September 6 and November 24, the pace of commencement of major projects around the country has accelerated significantly in the fourth quarter of this year. According to the introduction of deputy director Han Wenxiu, the focus will be on pollution reduction, carbon reduction, new energy, new technology, Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) Clusters and other areas, not only expand short-term demand, but also enhance long-term momentum.
Risk tips:
The rapid spread of the mutant virus has affected China’s contact consumption and industrial enterprise production.
