Carbon neutralization will become an important driving force for global capital expenditure in the future, and China is an indispensable link in the global manufacturing chain, which shows that the intensity of global capital expenditure is highly related to China’s export growth; Global capital expenditure under the background of this round of carbon neutralization will also effectively stimulate China’s demand, especially after 2020, the global pace of promoting carbon neutralization will be significantly accelerated, and the pulling effect will also be accelerated; According to the calculation of IEA, the annual carbon neutral investment scale in 2030 will be raised from the current US $2 trillion to US $5 trillion. Some energy related manufacturing industries are a typical mapping of the role of global carbon neutralization in driving China’s demand.
Global carbon neutralization investment will effectively stimulate China’s demand. The global annual investment demand may reach US $5 trillion in 2030. Carbon neutralization will become an important driving force for global capital expenditure in the future. According to IEA estimates, if we want to achieve the global carbon neutralization target in 2050, we need to significantly increase the capital expenditure related to carbon neutralization. From 2016 to 2020, the global average annual investment in carbon neutralization is about US $2 trillion, and the average annual investment needs to rise to US $5 trillion in 2030; In recent years, energy related capital expenditure accounts for about 2.5% of global GDP, which will gradually rise to 4.5% in 2030, which will play a significant role in driving global capital expenditure (the total global capital formation in 2019 is about US $22 trillion).
China is an indispensable link in the global capital expenditure chain. The intensity of global capital expenditure is also highly related to China’s export growth. In particular, the relevant needs of some manufacturing hollow countries in the investment process will be transferred to China. From the export data, after 2008, with the improvement of China’s infrastructure and the further development of manufacturing industry, the fit between export growth and global capital expenditure growth has been further strengthened, which further shows that China’s manufacturing industry is gradually undertaking the demand derived from global capital expenditure. In conclusion, we believe that this round of global capital expenditure under the background of carbon neutrality will also effectively stimulate China’s demand.
Since 2020, the overall process of global carbon neutralization has accelerated, and developed countries + emerging markets have accelerated their accession
Since 2020, there has been a global trend that developed countries have accelerated the pace of promoting carbon neutralization, and emerging market countries have successively joined carbon neutralization. The global promotion of carbon neutralization has significantly accelerated, which is expected to further accelerate the investment related to carbon neutralization and the driving effect on China’s demand in the future. According to the IEA calculation, the average annual carbon neutralization investment scale in 2030 will be raised from the current US $2 trillion to US $5 trillion.
In the United States, after Biden took office, the process of carbon neutralization was significantly accelerated. About 550 billion in the new round of 1.75 trillion stimulus plan was used for clean energy investment.
The EU’s promotion of carbon neutrality has also accelerated in recent years. At the EU level, it has launched a 1.85 trillion investment plan and spent 30% on clean energy investment; Considering the scale of private sector investment, it is estimated that the average annual investment scale in carbon neutralization in Europe will reach 1 trillion euros from 2021 to 2030. Germany will advance its carbon neutralization target five years to 2045 this year; After the establishment of the traffic light combination of the new German ruling coalition (Social Democratic Party + Liberal Democratic Party + Green Party), it is expected to continue to make efforts to carbon neutralization. The ruling program of the new government requires that Germany’s Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) share reach 80% in 2030 and eliminate coal in 2030.
Japan defined the carbon neutralization target for 2050 in October 2020. It is estimated that the total investment to achieve the carbon neutralization target will be US $10 trillion, equivalent to about US $330 billion per year.
Emerging market countries such as Vietnam, Russia and India announced carbon neutralization plans this year, with targets for 2050, 2060 and 2070 respectively.
Part of the energy related manufacturing industry is a typical mapping of the global carbon neutralization and the pulling effect on China’s demand
According to the prediction of energy structure transformation made by the International Energy Agency in “zero emissions in 2050”, the proportion of clean energy in the global power structure will reach 90% in 2050, Wind energy and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) photovoltaic account for nearly 70% (less than 10% at present). Wind and light are also the clean energy with the most growth space in the world in the future. The growth of global demand for relevant power equipment will effectively drive China’s capital expenditure, and made in China will supply the world.
First, the growth of global wind power demand may drive the growth of Chinese components (China’s wind turbine parts are also highly competitive in the world) and the growth of wind power production. Second, as the most important global manufacturer of photovoltaic modules, China will be driven by global carbon neutral investment. China accounts for more than 70% of the global photovoltaic module production capacity, and 60% of China’s domestic energy is exported. In addition to clean energy, in the traditional manufacturing field, construction machinery After the gradual transformation to electrification, this industry will also benefit from the construction investment in the context of global carbon neutrality. Some construction machinery leaders have early layout, large investment, synchronization and even leading global peers in the field of new energy.
Risk tip: the promotion speed of global carbon neutralization is lower than expected
