Introduction: Omicron is threatening, and the global capital market fluctuates violently. Under the frequent variation of viruses, will the general direction of global epidemic prevention change? How far is it from “influenza”? The latest analysis for market reference.
1、 Recently, Omicron’s “super strain” has been threatening and continues to disturb market sentiment
Since early November, Omicron mutants have rapidly “landed” in more than 60 economies, and the diffusion rate is significantly faster than Delta and other mutants. On November 9, the Omicron mutant was first found in South Africa and quickly spread to nearly 60 economies such as Spain, France and Austria. In simple comparison, Omicron spread to be the absolute dominant strain in South Africa in less than two weeks, and the transmission speed was significantly faster than Delta and other mutant strains.
In order to nip in the bud, the United States and Britain have taken entry restrictions one after another, and the fluctuation of the capital market has been significantly enlarged. Considering the unprecedented propagation speed of Omicron mutant and the lessons of delta mutant, the United States, the European Union, the United Kingdom and other economies have implemented entry restrictions. Affected by this, the market is worried about whether Omicron will become a “super virus”, which makes the risk appetite drop significantly and the risk assets withdraw sharply.
2、 Omicron’s “mild disease” feature is significant and does not change the general direction of global epidemic prevention
The preliminary results showed that although the transmission of Omicron was amazing, most of the cases were mild and the mortality rate was low. There are about 50 mutations in Omicron mutant, far more than 35 of delta mutant, and about 15 are located in the RBD region of S protein, which means that it may have strong immune escape ability. However, most of the cases infected with Omicron mutant are mild, and have not shown a worrying mortality rate.
Under the normalization of virus variation, mass vaccination is still the most effective means of epidemic prevention, and specific drugs are expected to be “icing on the cake”. Although covid-19 virus mutates frequently, the existing vaccines still have a certain protective effect. To say the least, even if the existing vaccine fails, the mainstream vaccine is expected to quickly develop new specific vaccines. Moreover, covid-19 specific drugs of MSD and Pfizer are expected to be on the market, which will further consolidate the global epidemic prevention front.
3、 The epidemic “influenza” is a long-term trend, but the process may be more tortuous than expected
In conclusion, the “influenza” epidemic situation is a long-term trend, and some economies with strong immunity are expected to realize the “influenza” epidemic situation faster. With the improvement of vaccination rate and prevention and control ability, and the overall evolution of the virus towards the general direction of “high infectivity and low mortality”, the long-term trend of “influenza” of the epidemic has been basically determined. Among them, some economies with strong “immunity” such as Israel will realize the “influenza” of the epidemic at or earlier time; For some economies with weak immunization base, the road of “influenza” epidemic still has a long way to go.
The expansion of global vaccine production capacity is expected to narrow the “immunization gap” and facilitate the “influenza” of the epidemic, but the process may be more tortuous than expected. In 2022, the global vaccine production capacity is expected to be significantly expanded to 21.6 billion doses, covering the vaccination needs of 7.5 billion people around the world. In this context, the global “immunization gap” is expected to narrow, which is conducive to the “influenza” of the epidemic. However, considering the gradual weakening of the effectiveness of vaccine protection and the uncertainty of the vaccination process, the road of “influenza” of the epidemic is not achieved overnight, and the disturbance of phased counter attack to market sentiment may still exist.
Risk tip: covid-19 virus mutation reduces vaccine effectiveness; The actual efficacy of covid-19 specific drug was lower than expected
