Main points
Economic situation: triple pressure
The meeting was more cautious in judging the economic situation, and clearly put forward the triple pressure faced in the future - demand contraction, supply shock and weakening expectation. The contraction of demand has been clearly reflected since the third quarter. In the troika, in addition to strong exports, investment and consumption are weak, loan demand is low, and the effect of "wide credit" is not good. Of course, there are cyclical factors, but a large part of the reason comes from the influence of self policy choice. Under the constraints of local debt and real estate, it is also inevitable to face the contraction of demand. At the same time, the repeated global epidemic has continued the problem of supply chain shortage. Under the impact of supply, the world has ushered in high inflation pressure. China is also facing the pressure of rising raw material prices and rising enterprise operating costs, which even leads to the contraction of real demand. Under the resonance of demand contraction and supply shock, expectations also weakened significantly. In addition, the impact of the epidemic and the emergence of new variants of viruses also make the external environment more complex, severe and uncertain.
Policy deployment: increasing the urgency of stabilizing growth
The policy keynote of the economic work conference in 2021 - stability in the first place and seeking progress in stability. Although it is not a new formulation, it requires all departments and regions to shoulder the responsibility of stabilizing growth, and requires the policy force to move forward appropriately to enhance the urgency of stabilizing growth, and puts forward seven policy directions.
Fiscal policy is first mentioned in the macro policy, which requires to improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. In particular, it emphasizes the need to ensure the intensity of fiscal expenditure, accelerate the progress of expenditure, and moderately advance infrastructure investment. The proposal of this point also hopes to change the situation of financial postposition and slow expenditure this year. This shows that the focus of steady growth is on infrastructure investment. In view of this, the amount of special bonds next year is expected to be issued in advance. Under the requirements of "forming physical workload at the end of this year and the beginning of next year", infrastructure investment is expected to start in the beginning of the year, laying the foundation for a good start of the economy. The new tax reduction and fee reduction policy is expected to be launched, We should increase support in structural areas (small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, individual industrial and commercial households, manufacturing industry, risk resolution, etc.). We remain firm in curbing the new local implicit debt. In terms of monetary policy, we require a prudent monetary policy to be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity. We will guide financial institutions to increase their support for the real economy, especially small and micro enterprises, scientific and technological innovation and green development, so as to improve the financial structure in 2022 Sexual policy is still the main beam. At the same time, we should continue to implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, that is, we should promote the sustained recovery of consumption and actively expand effective investment. In 2022, with the momentum of external demand declining, expanding domestic demand is also a necessary policy response.
Steady growth requires efforts and efficiency improvement
The goal of economic work next year is clear - steady growth. The policy will exert all-round efforts, intensify efforts and advance the time. Compared with the economic work conference in the past three years, this year's steady growth means particularly strong. The rapid recovery period after the epidemic has passed, and the halo guarantee of low base is no longer available. Under the triple pressure of future economic growth, the economic operation has entered a new operation platform, and the economic operation level of the new platform may be lower than that before the epidemic, which also tests the strength and effectiveness of the policy.
Risk statement
Inflation rises too fast; Repeated epidemic situation; The economy went down faster than expected.
